INDIA

MANMOHAN SINGH TO VISIT ISLAMABAD?
The much-anticipated, long-delayed high-level talks between India and Pakistan’s new government are now set to take place this month. Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee is expected to fly to Islamabad to hold talks with his Pakistani counterpart, Shah Mahmood Qureshi, on 21 May. The foreign secretaries of both countries will also meet the preceding day to set the stage. While the progress made during the fourth round of the Composite Dialogue will feature highly on the agenda, the meeting is likely to focus on laying the groundwork for the upcoming fifth round. Both sides are keen to take up additional confidence-building measures, with India expected to suggest converting the fortnightly Srinagar-Muzaffarabad and Poonch-Rawalakot bus services into weekly ones, as well as to urge a launch of additional bus services between the Kargil-Skardu and Jammu-Sialkot segments. If all goes well, Islamabad could soon be hosting Manmohan Singh himself. For over two years, the prime minister has been waiting for a momentous breakthrough in the Composite Dialogue to visit the western neighbour – now it looks like he might be able to get his wish.

CHINA’S NUCLEAR CAPABILITY WORRIES NEW DELHI
Even after the significant back-patting and promises of everlasting friendship over the past few months, the India-China relationship remains fraught with tension on a number of issues. Security is, of course, chief among these. This week, the growing number of Chinese nuclear submarines had the Indian security establishment particularly worried, when satellite pictures revealed China’s newest naval base, at Sanya on Hainan Island – only 1200 miles from the Malacca Strait. The photos showed that the Chinese base could house up to 20 nuclear ballistic submarines, capable of firing anti-satellite missiles and nuclear-tipped cruise missiles. With mounting alarm, New Delhi has tasked the high-powered Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) to discuss the matter during its next meeting. (CCS, a sub-committee of the Cabinet, is headed by the prime minister and overlooks crucial issues.) But Navy Chief Admiral Suresh Mehta maintains that the threat comes not from the location’s proximity to India, but rather from the increased number of nuclear submarines being built by a single country. He says that the satellite images do not reveal any new threat, as “the coverage of missiles which are held with China, cover virtually the whole world. So, you are already covered”. In perhaps better news, Mehta denied that India would respond by increasing its own stock of nuclear submarines.

PAKISTANI CHANNELS BANNED IN SRINAGAR
Four Pakistani channels – PTV World, Geo, Aaj and ARY – have been banned in Srinagar District since 21 April, and the district magistrate Sheikh Aijaz Iqbal this week added one more to the list. It was announced that PTV News, the officially Pakistani news channel, will also be blacked out by cable operators, with immediate effect. It has been claimed that these channels were being broadcast without the necessary permission from the Union Ministry of Information and Broadcasting. Following the April order, cable operators had protested by refusing to air Indian channels, as well. However, they resumed airing due to protests from subscribers, for whom cable television is an important source of entertainment. Clients were particularly enraged with not being able to watch the current Indian Premier League cricket matches. The cable operators were originally hopeful that the ban would be lifted soon, but the additional order has left them wondering.

FARMERS’ SITUATION STILL DIRE
Suicide rates among debt-plagued Indian farmers continue to rise despite the more than USD 1 billion that been pledged to assist them, as well as additional expensive relief schemes that have supposedly been implemented. A report by the Comptroller and Auditor General of India, the first to evaluate the impact of the packages since they was announced two years ago, this week concluded that the package has failed in its basic purpose. Indeed, more than 36 percent of farmers were not even aware of available state and central government packages. The agrarian crisis in six affected districts of the worst-hit Vidarbha area of eastern Maharashtra has not reduced over the last two years. Furthermore, the report also revealed that 75 percent of farmers were ignorant of the ban on illegal money lending. On the other hand, those who were aware and went to banks faced high interest rates, while some banks simply refused loans to the farmers. The report criticises the government for weak coordination in executing the packages, lack of proper monitoring and delays in payments of compensation.

MANIPUR TO FORM CIVILAN MILITIA
In an alarming move, news arose this week that the Manipur state government has decided to arm civilians from two villages, purportedly to defend themselves against militancy. State police are now to train 500 people from the two villages, with an eye to forming a special police force. Each individual will be given INR 3000 after completing the training, after which they will be deployed in their own communities. The government further decided that any village seeking state protection would be armed. While incidences of intimidation, kidnapping and murder by rebel groups are indeed rampant in Manipur, the forming of civilian militias has been widely criticised as a dangerous and ineffective way of countering such organisations. The formation of a similar civilian militia, the Salwa Judum in Chhattisgarh, was meant to counter Naxalites, but has proven extremely problematic – including reports of forcible recruitment of civilians, including children, into the Judum.

PAKISTAN

FATA AUTONOMY DEMANDED
A 45-member tribal jirga representing the seven tribal agencies that make up the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) this week demanded a new province under the States and Frontier Regions (SAFRON) division. The FATA is currently semi-autonomous from the federal government. The group presented its demand during a meeting with Federal Minister for States and Frontier Regions Najamuddin Khan and Interior Affairs Adviser Rehman Malik. “We want a separate province of tribal agencies under a council just as Azad Jammu & Kashmir is working under the Kashmir Council. We want the Minister for States and Frontier Regions to be a powerful person who controls this area,” said jirga leader Sahibzada Malik Fareed Khan. Although appreciative of the new government’s scrapping of the Frontier Crimes Regulations (FCR), which imposed collective punishment, among other things, the jirga demanded that Sharia law take precedence over other laws in the FATA.

KASHMIRI REBELS ‘DISSIDENTS’
Meeting near New Delhi this week, over 50 leaders from Pakistan and India, including Kashmiris from both sides of the Line of Control, demanded the establishment of a Truth and Reconciliation Commission before the high-level India-Pakistan talks take place later this month. The body voiced support for dialogue on Kashmir, but added that no decision should be taken without the consent of the Kashmiri people. Warning that violence was in fact increasing in Kashmir, the group called on the two governments to take tangible steps to resolve the issue. The conference also stressed a need to increase confidence-building measures between the two countries. An animated debate also took place over the classification of armed Kashmiri rebels as ‘separatists’ and ‘militants’, with many participants deeming both terms insulting. A final decision was eventually taken to term the rebels ‘dissidents’, and New Delhi was asked to “involve dissidents in the peace process”. The conference report will be submitted to both governments before Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee flies to Islamabad later this month.

BANGLADESH

EXPORT OF RICE BANNED
In light of the dire rice shortage in Bangladesh, Dhaka this week banned the export of rice for six months. Though Bangladesh imports rice to meet national demand, it exported rice valued at over USD 5.5 million last year. But the devastation of paddy fields by Cyclone Sidr last year, combined with global rice shortages, has resulted in a doubling in the cost of rice over the past year. In response, the caretaker government has banned the export of all varieties of rice, except aromatic rice, to “increase the supply of rice in the domestic market and help control the high prices.” Bangladesh is hoping that the 400,000 tonnes of rice to be imported from India at the end of this month will help the situation.

NEPAL

INDIA OFFERS TO REHABILITATE MAOIST CADRES
As politicos in Kathmandu hammer out the details of the new government, the future of the 20,000 combatants of the Maoists’ People’s Liberation Army remains a crucial issue. Currently, these cadres are housed in 28 UN-monitored cantonments across the country, but they will not be allowed to remain there once the Maoists transform into a mainstream political party. Keeping that in mind, it is reported that the Indian government has offered to provide vocational training to the fighters, which would enable them to find employment. Officials at the Indian External Affairs Ministry say that the details of the training would be finalised in consultation with the Nepali government. Meanwhile, the unexpected Maoist victory is shaking up the relationship between the two neighbours in other areas, as well. Senior Maoist leaders continue to argue that the Peace and Friendship Treaty, which has guided bilateral ties since 1950, be either amended or abrogated. India appears to be coming around to the idea, with Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon saying that New Delhi is prepared to revisit the treaty.

STILL A KING TO SOME
Although Nepal is on the verge of abolishing the monarchy and stripping King Gyanendra of his royal title, he will still retain royal privileges in one place at least. Priests at the Jagannath Temple, in eastern India, one of Hinduism’s holiest sites, announced this week that regardless of Gyanendra’s status in Nepal, he will continue to be regarded as a king at the temple. The king of Nepal, who is considered a reincarnation of Lord Vishnu, is allowed to perform rituals on the sacred altar of the temple, something that is usually limited to high-ranking priests. The temple is cleared of other worshippers when the king visits, and the royal family is housed at a nearby palace. Gyanendra last visited the temple in 2003.

SAFFRON CORRIDOR
Everyone talks forebodingly about the phantom of the ‘Red Corridor’ running through Nepal and India, but the ‘Saffron Corridor’ is glowingly alive and well. At its 20th general council meeting in Uttar Pradesh, the World Hindu Federation’s (WHF) leaders this week repeated last year’s demands that Nepal return to being a Hindu kingdom. The group also threatened armed revolt against the Maoists, who spearheaded the interim government’s decision to declare Nepal a secular state. “Our aim is to restore Nepal as a Hindu rashtra,” the WHF’s international president General (retd) Bharat Keshar Simha said. An Indian hardliner at the conference said that the group “cannot tolerate” the Maoists’ promise to abolish the monarchy once the incoming government is formed, and that they will “start an armed struggle against the Maoists.” Ashok Singhal, president of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad, went even further, accusing secularists and Maoists of wanting to “humiliate the Hindu society”. He continued: “It is a conspiracy to destroy Hinduism in Nepal. Maoists plan to repeat what China had done in Tibet.”

SRI LANKA

LTTE RESTOCKING ARMS
Contrary to the Sri Lankan Navy’s assertion last year that it had destroyed all LTTE ships that had been functioning as floating armouries, intelligence agencies this week disclosed that the Tigers have brought three shiploads of military equipment to the ground in the last two months. The report, combined with recent heavy LTTE shelling in the north and northeastern parts of the country, has left Colombo wary of the group’s ability to restock arms. While the government has promised to dismantle the Tigers parallel government in the north, as well as to defeat the rebels by the end of the year, the ground realities paint a very different picture. The battle has intensified in the north since the official demise of the ceasefire in January, and the Tigers are said to be putting up a serious resistance to the army’s incursions.

EVICTION OF TAMILS FROM COLOMBO ‘ILLEGAL’
In June 2007, over 400 Tamils were arbitrarily evicted from Colombo by the police, allegedly for security reasons. This week, the Sri Lankan Supreme Court ruled that these evictions, or any action preventing Tamils from entering and residing in any part of the capital, violated fundamental rights. The order came as a response to a fundamental-rights application filed by the Centre for Policy Alternatives, following the mass eviction. An interim order, directing the Inspector General of Police not to take further steps to evict Tamils or prevent them from entering Colombo, has already been issued. Following the order, the police have brought back many who were earlier sent away.

BURMA

JUNTA REFUSES AID WORKERS ENTRY, DEATH TOLL RISES
As information trickles out of Burma, the full extent of the devastation caused by Cyclone Nargis, which raged through the country late last week, has become more and more clear. Millions have been displaced in the floods, and the death toll by the end of the week has been estimated at over 100,000. Meanwhile, that number looks set to rise as the junta refuses to allow helicopters and ships bearing much-needed food and medical supplies into the country. At this crucial juncture, aid workers and experienced disaster-management teams are being made to wait for visas in Bangkok. It is suspected that the military does not want a large foreign presence in the country during the referendum on its draft constitution, to be held this coming Sunday, though theories about the motives behind the secretive junta abound. While the polls have been delayed in the worst-hit parts of the country, they are set to proceed as scheduled elsewhere. The junta does seem to be accepting some aid. Two aircrafts and two Indian Naval ships carrying disaster relief supplies have reportedly reached Burmese territory. In addition, late in the week the World Food Programme in Bangladesh also received the green light from Rangoon.

TIBET

SECOND ROUND OF TALKS TO HAPPEN
What actually transpired during the brief talks between Chinese officials and representatives of the Dalai Lama in Shenzhen last week remains largely a mystery. Neither side has changed its rhetoric post-dialogue. In fact, China has intensified its criticism of the Dalai Lama, saying that he has not admitted to his “monstrous crimes” and continues to “perpetuate fraud”. Beijing even went so far as to accuse the Tibetan Youth Conference (TYC), based in Dharamsala, of acquiring support from “terrorist organisations such as al-Qaeda and East Turkistan groups”. On the other hand, the Tibetan government-in-exile continues to be conciliatory, saying that the Chinese had demonstrated a ‘willingness’ to engage. One can only hope the analysts are right when they say that it is not uncommon for China to present an inflexible public face even while negotiating in private. Indeed, the only tangible result to emerge from the meeting is positive: an agreement to continue dialogue. A date for the second round of talks will be announced after discussions “with our counterparts and both sides have agreed”, according to the Dalai Lama’s representatives, while Beijing will wait for “an appropriate time”.

BHUTAN

NATIONAL FILM INDUSTRY IN TROUBLE
The Bhutani film industry, which has become relatively prolific and extremely popular in the last few years, now appears to be on a decline. Bhutan has seven cinema halls serving approximately 700,000 people, only one of which, the Luger Theatre, is in Thimphu. These theatres only screen movies in the national language, Dzongkha. So high was the demand for local movies, that in 2006 producers had to book the Luger nine months in advance. But while 22 films were released in 2006, that number dropped to 18 in 2007. Only seven films are projected to be released this year. Bhutani filmmakers say that the decline is due to difficulty in getting loans to produce films, as well as a lack of adequate theatres. Though the Bhutani film industry has been around for only two decades, it has won numerous international accolades. Filmmakers are asking that loans be made easily available, production equipment be tax exempt, and more cinema halls be built to save the fading industry.

THE MALDIVES

ELECTIONS IMMINENT?
The beleaguered Special Majlis (constituent assembly) has for the last three years been inching forward – with a great deal of bickering, admittedly, but nonetheless moving towards setting a date for the country’s first multi-party presidential elections. This week, the government finally set out some potential dates: 9 or 10 August. This despite the fact that the drafting of the constitution is note yet complete. This timeframe would allow for a second round of polls – required by the new constitution if no candidate gets over 50 percent of the votes the first time around – at the end of August. Opposition and independent voices oppose the government’s proposal, however, on the grounds that the dates leave inadequate time to set up independent commissions tasked with ensuring free and fair polls. Nonetheless, with the new constitution stating that the polls must be held by 10 October 2008, and with Ramadan falling between 2 September and 2 October, choices for election dates are limited. The opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) had advocated instituting a caretaker government and delaying the polls, a proposal that has now been defeated. Now, the MDP is alleging that it might not even participate in the elections, which could well mean that the polls, finally announced, are deferred again.

AFGHANISTAN

PAKISTANI TALIBAN FLOCKING TO AFGHANISTAN
Paradoxically, the ceasefire between Islamabad and the Pakistani Taliban is adding to NATO’s woes in Afghanistan. With temporary peace in Pakistan, this week it was reported that the local Taliban are sending their cadre across the border to fight NATO-led troops in Afghanistan. While Taliban spokesman Maulvi Umar refused to comment on the matter, he did confirm that fighters with the Pakistani Taliban have been returning to Afghanistan over the last few years to fight the “real Jihad” against foreign troops. Umar’s comment resonated with the experience of NATO troops across Afghanistan. British forces in Garmser, 120 miles from the Pakistani border in southern Afghanistan, say that the majority of their encounters are with Pakistanis. Estimates suggest that almost 60 percent of the fighters in Garmser are now coming from across the border. While Western soldiers point to the madrassas of northern Pakistan as a breeding ground for these fighters, Pakistanis disagree. Instead, they point to American and NATO belligerence in Afghanistan as a root cause of anger among and radicalisation of Muslims.

REGION

DEVELOPING COUNTRIES RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGH PRICES?
Following on the heels of George W Bush’s recent statement that the Indian middle class is responsible for the current spike in global food prices, the White House this week likewise blamed India and China for the rising cost of fuel. Noting that the demand for oil has indeed increased worldwide, a White House spokesperson argued that increasing demand for oil in developing countries was driving up prices. Washington, DC was also quick to defend the effect of US policies to encourage corn-based ethanol vis-à-vis world food prices, stating that it bio-fuel production amounted to only 1.5 percent of the 43 percent increase in food prices over the last year. Oil prices hit a record high of USD 120 a barrel this week.

ASEAN TAKES MEASURES TO OFFSET FINANCIAL SLUMPS
Aware of the alarming effects of a financial crisis, such as the Asian financial crisis of the late-1990s, 13 Asian nations this week agreed to set up a multi-national foreign-exchange pool of at least USD 80 billion, which could protect their currencies from such situations in future. The finance ministers of the 13 countries agreed to establish a system of bilateral currency swaps, know as the Chiang Mai Initiative, as they got together at the 41st annual meeting of the Asian Development Bank in Madrid. Now, 80 percent of the funds are set to come from Asia’s big three countries – China, Japan and South Korea – while the rest will be contributed by the 10 members of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). “We are committed to further accelerate our work in order to reach consensus on all of the elements which include concrete conditions eligible for borrowing and contents of covenants specified in borrowing arrangements,” a statement said. Well done ASEAN. Now, the question remains as to why the countries of Southasia cannot get it together to take similar precautions.

INDIA BAD BUSINESS LOCATION
Although India boasts of the highest economic growth rate in Southasia, and has emerged as a global investment hotspot, it is not the best place to be business in the region. That distinction goes to India’s smaller neighbours. ‘Doing Business 2008’, an annual report prepared by the World Bank, ranked India 120th among 178 countries in a list of good places to invest. At this position, India ranks below all its Southasian neighbours except Afghanistan, which is not too much farther down at 150. The report investigates regulations that enhance business activity and those that constrain it, using parameters such procedures, cost of starting a business and tax rates. Pakistan was ranked highest among the Southasian countries at 76, with Sri Lanka at 101, Bangladesh at 107, Nepal at 111 and Bhutan at 119.

INDIAN, PAKISTANI PEACEKEEPERS ACCUSED OF ILLEGAL TRADING
Indians and Pakistanis are known to have a flair and penchant for gold, especially during weddings, Diwali and other festive occasions. But their thirst for this precious (and often dirty, in light of human-rights abuses) metal has put them in trouble. An investigation by the BBC has recently found that Indians and Pakistanis, deployed as part of the UN peacekeeping mission in the Congo, have been accused of illegally trading and buying arms, gold and ivory with rebel groups and militias. An investigation was launched last year into allegations that Pakistani peacekeepers had been supplying weapons and ammunitions to a militia and smuggling gold; but those allegations “could not be substantiated”, save for two individuals who were charged with misconduct. Confidential UN sources informed the BBC, however, that they were discouraged from their investigation, perhaps because the UN did not want to estrange Pakistan, which is the world’s largest contributor of UN troops.