From the Burma Solidarity group

21 March 2008

Splits emerge in Burma's army over country's roadmap

By: Larry Jagan

There is a growing rift within Burma's military government over the country's political future and road-map to democracy. A battle is now beginning to emerge between those who are currently in control of most of Burma's assets and those who see themselves as the country's true guardians.

Several key members of the ruling junta are secretly being investigated for corruption. The junta is no longer cohesive and united, as two major camps have clearly emerged. On one side there are the ministers and members of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) who have major business interests and are associated with Than Shwe's brainchild, the mass community-based Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA).

On the other side are the top ranking generals, led by second in command Maung Aye, who want a professional army and see its main role as protector of the people. They have become increasingly dismayed at corruption within the government and understand that it is undermining the army's future role in the country.

As the war between these two groups escalates, Senior General Than Shwe's rapidly deteriorating health has effectively left the country without a real leader. The result is total inertia in government administration and a growing fear that one of the contesting factions may launch a "soft coup" in the near future, according to Burmese military sources.

But the "real" Army, as these officers view themselves, is going to have to act quickly if it is to remain a force to be reckoned with. The planned referendum for May and the election in two years time will radically change the country's political landscape. The USDA, which is organising both the referendum and the elections, will significantly increase its power and control over the country's new emerging political process. .

Time is now running out for the top generals under Than Shwe if they are to take control. They know that after the referendum in May their position will become increasingly less significant, as Ministers and selected military generals move into the USDA and take up civilian roles in the future. At the same time they fear that widespread corruption will also destroy the country and its political stability.

"The real Army is the only institution that can bring genuine democracy to the country in the future," a military man told Mizzima. "The new generation of officers represent the real hope for the country." They would be open to a political dialogue with Aung San Suu Kyi, he insisted, as they see themselves as the real guardians of the country.

In the meantime, Than Shwe's health is rapidly deteriorating and he is fast losing his memory. He is increasingly withdrawn and reclusive. His position is now becoming progressively more perilous, despite his carefully planned schemes, according to many specialists on Burma's military.

"It is not worth risking a crisis when nature may solve it for us legally and peacefully," Maung Aye recently told some of his close confidantes. But with the referendum only weeks away the army may yet have to move against the corrupt USDA lobby before it's too late

The above is an excerpt of the full article available here