Nothing left to lose

Successive Pakistani governments have painted themselves into a corner over Kashmir by their overuse of rhetoric and emotion. This has locked Pakistan into an all-or-nothing position..The 'state' of Azad Jammu and Kashmir came into existence with a formal declaration of its founding and 'independence' on 24 October 1947 in circumstances surrounding Independence and Partition. It consists of a sliver of territory that remained under the control of the pro-Pakistan elements in Kashmir around Independence. But from the very beginning, the state was beset with anomalies..Considerable areas—the Northern Areas comprising Gilgit, Hunza, Baltistan—which had been part of the Jammu and Kashmir state before Partition remained outside the territory of the Azad Jammu and Kashmir entity. They came to be administered directly from Pakistan, an arrangement that continues to this day..Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) represents but five percent of the total territory of the undivided state of Jammu and Kashmir. According to the latest census (1998), AJK has a population of 2.91 million, of which 88 percent live in rural areas. The state lacks industry and its agriculture has been declining over the years. This has increased dependence even for basic foodstuffs on Pakistan, particularly the adjoining province of Punjab..For the first 27 years of its existence, AJK was administered by an informal council comprising of a president and a few ministers. A Legislative Assembly was set up in 1970 and four years later a constitution was promulgated to mark the transition to a parliamentary democratic system, with the president as the constitutional head of state, and the prime minister as the chief executive, drawing his legitimacy from a majority in the Assembly. Along with these formal accoutrements of a parliamentary democracy, the state also has its own High and Supreme Courts..The independence of Azad Jammu and Kashmir has, however, always remained confined to paper. The state has always looked to Pakistan for support in defence and finance despite the brave rhetoric espoused by all AJK politicians about the territory being the 'base camp' for the liberation struggle of the whole of Jammu and Kashmir..Politically, the state has been characterised by in-fighting among its various political factions as they contend for the spoils of office. The friction between political factions has provided ready ground for interference, intervention and manipulation of the political process by rulers in Islamabad, starting with Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, under whose tenure the 1974 constitution was promulgated..The myth of AJK being a 'base camp' for the Kashmiri liberation struggle is used by all parties and factions to prove their legitimacy. Ironically, the general view in the state is that it is the AJK politicians themselves who have let down the cause of Kashmiri self-determination..The AJK budget is heavily underwritten by the Government of Pakistan. The consistent financial support to the small state of AJK has provided it a level of service and facilities that is the envy of the rest of Pakistan. At the same time, there are charges that Pakistani aid over the years has largely been squandered by successive corrupt and incompetent administrations of AJK..The cost for Pakistan has not only been financial. Politically, the commitment to the Kashmir cause has meant a huge defence expenditure. This has led to the concomitant strengthening of the military and bureaucracy's hold on the national agenda and politics throughout the 52 years of Pakistan's existence. Yet the attitude towards AJK of all Pakistani governments—military and civilian—has been ambiguous. These governments have neither recognised AJK as a sovereign state, nor pressed for international recognition for it as an interim form of a liberated state of Jammu and Kashmir..At the time of the framing of the 1974 Constitution, Bhutto is said to have toyed with the idea of incorporating the entity as the fifth province of Pakistan, but dropped it because of opposition from inside AJK, and also because it would have complicated Pakistan's case regarding the disputed status of Kashmir..In addition, the vast expanse of the Northern Areas, more than five times the area of AJK, have been given little representation or rights (See Himal May 1998). They are administered by a Northern Areas Council set up and controlled from Islamabad, with token local representation. Demands have been made from time to time by the people of the Northern Areas to be either incorporated into AJK or Pakistan itself, or failing both, be given the right to elect their own representatives and administer their affairs democratically. There has so far been no response from Islamabad or Muzaffarabad, the capital of AJK. The result is that the Northern Areas remain one of the poorest and least developed territories in Pakistan..The federal government in Islamabad maintains a Ministry of Kashmir Affairs, responsible for overseeing all aspects of the administration of the state and the Northern Areas. For all intents and purposes, despite the facade of a parliamentary democracy in Muzaffarabad (a facade that is lacking in the Northern Areas), the government of AJK is run by the Ministry of Kashmir Affairs, which holds the purse strings..Wag the dog.Despite AJK's dependent status, however, because of the emotional content of the Kashmir issue for large numbers of Pakistanis (although it can be argued that this tribe is declining with the passage of time), the liberation rhetoric of Kashmir has given AJK politicians the power to shake up Pakistani politics from time to time..The tail has managed to wag the dog quite effectively for 52 years, with the cost being borne by the Pakistani population as a whole. For example, the AJK politicians did not welcome the Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's ride on the inaugural bus to Lahore from Delhi to sign the Lahore Declaration with Nawaz Sharif to seek a peaceful, negotiated settlement of all issues between them (including Kashmir). Almost unanimously, the AJK politicians have opposed any step taken towards a more 'normal' relationship between India and Pakistan, citing, among other reasons, the fact that Kashmir was being discussed over and above the heads of the people of Kashmir, without whose participation no settlement would be acceptable..But with the insurgency in Kashmir winding down into a smaller, fundamentalist-led effort, and military means to wrest Kashmir becoming unthinkable since both India and Pakistan have achieved overt nuclear status, there is no alternative to diplomacy to settle Kashmir and other issues. Which means there is the very real possibility that the status quo is likely to remain frozen for the foreseeable future. This is a logical and reasonable conclusion, but one which Pakistani leaders would find difficult to sell to their own people. Through their use as such of rhetoric and emotion on Kashmir, Pakistani politicians have painted themselves into a corner. Kashmir is described as the 'core' issue between Pakistan and India, and one that even goes to the 'core' of the undefined and undefinable 'Pakistan Ideology'..AJK politicians reacted to the Lahore Declaration by describing it as an attempt to flog the dead horse of the Shimla Accord. They insist to this day that there is no other acceptable solution except the referendum promised in the UN resolutions in 1948/49, which remains unimplemented to date. The fact that the UN resolutions may no longer hold any appeal for the international community, or that the resolutions have become archaic does not trouble them. They remain locked into an all-or-nothing position.