Army, America and Allah

For the dramatically inclined, Pakistan's political scenario may look like a dark comedy: puppet politicians dancing to the tune of the Three Puppeteers – Army, America and Allah. One for all, and all for one! Indeed, this wily threesome has played rough and tumble with the destiny of this country since its inception.

Allah's people, for whom Pakistan was created during Britain's rushed exit from the Subcontinent, vowed to fashion this new nation into the Land of the Pure, guided by the Holy Koran, and prove to the world that the message of 14 centuries ago remains relevant today. Of course, Islam's holy book, as with all religious books, needs to be interpreted by humans, and no single version can claim finality. In this plurality of divine inspiration lies strength – though until now it has been lost to the warring sects, each claiming a monopoly over the 'Truth'.

Next to the machinations of the religious right, the most powerful external force determining the fate of Pakistan is America. Ever since the CIA used the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to create the mujahideen to oust the Russians from Afghanistan, Pakistan has been America's strategic ally in the Subcontinent. This relationship became of primary significance following the attacks of 11 September 2001, when America realised that Pakistan was a breeding ground of potent 'terrorism', such as that of the Taliban. George W Bush's nightmare scenario was suddenly a weak government in Islamabad capitulating to the rightwing mullahs, many of whom hate the US and support Osama bin Laden's brand of global revolution. A key strategic goal subsequently became having the Pakistan Army (including its various tentacles, such as the ISI) help to squash Washington, DC's various enemies in the badlands of Pakistan.

Six years after America and the Pakistani military joined hands to root out militancy, however, it appears that little has been accomplished. The Taliban are still deeply entrenched along the Afghan-Pakistani border; al-Qaeda's top leadership seems to have found a secure sanctuary in the area; and militants strike within and beyond Pakistan with lethal regularity. As if this was not bad enough, General Pervez Musharraf has taken to shooting himself in the foot. This summer witnessed the storming of the Lal Masjid in Islamabad, with great loss of life; the dismissal and reinstatement of the country's chief justice; and the recent deportation of Mian Nawaz Sharif – all the doings of the general. To top this off has been the news, in early September, that 300 army troops surrendered to a small band of Taliban, suggesting dissension in the lower ranks. While the forces of Allah smile, those of America and the army grope helplessly.

Cast of characters
In March, what must have struck Gen Musharraf as a smart move turned out to be a major disaster, when he suspended Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry. Although Chaudhry was ultimately reinstated by his colleagues on the bench, the situation created conditions that called for the resignation of both the general and his prime minister, as the court's decision went against their wishes and dictates. Graceful resignation, however, is not an Islamabad tradition.

A few months later, Nawaz Sharif was quick to take advantage of the court's newfound strength to get it to declare his ten-year exile illegal. But even before he set off for Pakistan from London, Sharif knew that he would not be allowed to stay, and asked his brother, Shahbaz, not to accompany him. After a brief halt at Islamabad's airport, cordoned off by 20,000 troops and police, Sharif was bundled off to Saudi Arabia to continue cooling his heels. This undignified exit was arranged by the army and those chief Arab courtesans of America, the princes of the House of Saud.

The time has thus come for the arrival back on the stage of the most sophisticated player of them all, Benazir Bhutto. She has conveniently decided to return on 18 October, some three days after Gen Musharraf's term as army chief is set to end. Before that time, however, the general must get himself re-elected as president by the existing Parliament – and he wants this done while retaining his uniform. But this is opposed by all of the country's political parties, save for the Muslim League faction that has long supported him. Indeed, this faction materialised largely for this exact purpose: to qualify them for office, many Muslim League parliamentarians were provided with illegal bachelor's degrees by government agencies, just prior to the last election.

If all goes as planned, a large number of these lawbreakers (including their leaders, who are major government loan defaulters) will be returned to power. This will be so even if Bhutto and Gen Musharraf come to an unseemly alliance, in all likelihood cooked up by America, which will lead to prolonging the domination of the army in Pakistan's affairs. Bhutto, meanwhile, deludes herself, as did her father, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto: he thought he would put the army in its place; the soldiers hanged him.

Chief Justice Chaudhry's Supreme Court may yet upset the cart, and declare the general's re-election illegal, with or without the uniform. For a man who believes that he is Pakistan's Ataturk, such a denial by the court is likely to precipitate the imposition of martial law. Under military rule, civilian courts are suspended. But Pakistani lawyers have tasted victory in restoring some power and dignity to the Supreme Court. Also, as the public has voiced its opposition to the army and its leader, the chances of martial law actually being able to control any subsequent unrest seem remote.

The cynical Pakistani, disillusioned by corrupt politicians and power-hungry military men, may yet awaken, and come out onto the streets against martial law. Short of a revolution – and that is not currently in sight – the army is not going to retreat into the barracks anytime soon. How the political forces, with the help of the court, begin to limit the army's power has yet to be seen. As the events of the coming weeks unfold, the whole region will be waiting to see how this dark comedy of errors is played out