Bal, Raj and Uddhav

In the Shiv Sena's traditional stronghold, many are excited about the breakaway formation headed by Bal Thackeray's nephew Raj – even if they don't know exactly what the new party stands for. There is something about conflict among kin that keeps history engaged, and often bitter. The Mahabharata, for example, is nothing if not a story of epic battle between cousins. Egos may drive such conflicts, but their spoils have always been political. In Bombay today, two cousins, Raj and Uddhav Thackeray, have their horns locked in combat. At stake is the militant legacy of Bal Thackeray – Raj's uncle, Uddhav's father, and the founder of the Hindu-nationalist Shiv Sena. Inevitably, the politics will be titillating; but what about the battlefield, the heart of Bombay? Is the Shiv Sena losing its grip over Dadar, the area of the city that has been its stronghold for years? And is the Marathi urban middle class finally shifting loyalties? The answers to these questions may well define the trajectory of Maharashtra's politics, and Bombay's future.

But first, a brief foray into the past. In the late 1960s, Bal Thackeray built his political party, the Shiv Sena, out of a rabble-rousing lot of disgruntled Maharastrian youth. As the appeal of Maratha parochialism weakened, the party moved towards militant Hindu nationalism. After a lacklustre performance in electoral politics and a base confined to Bombay during the 1970s and early 1980s, in the following decade Thackeray's leadership saw some gains in civic elections. The Sena expanded its political base to the Konkan, Vidarbha and Marathwada regions of Maharashtra. In 1995, it formed the state government with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Audacious Raj
With Thackeray at the helm, his son Uddhav and nephew Raj emerged as the younger voices of the party, as well as possible heirs to the patriarch's legacy. While a reclusive Uddhav kept away from the public eye, the fiery, elegant and popular Raj fast came to be seen as his uncle's fitting successor. But Bal Thackeray silenced popular speculation by anointing his son Uddhav the party's working president in 2004, decidedly settling the issue of succession. This ended Raj's chances of heading the Shiv Sena and discord developed rapidly between the two. In December 2005, Raj quit the Shiv Sena, claiming he had "suffered" in the party.

After a state-wide tour, in March 2006, Raj announced the formation of a new political party, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). The new party is pledged to the building of a vibrant, dynamic Maharashtra. At age 38, Raj is busy cultivating the image of a thinking young politician, open to the changing times and considerate towards Dalits and Muslim minorities, quite unlike the firebrand Hindu parochialism of Bal Thackeray's party. While Raj has publicly maintained that he does not want to break the Shiv Sena, that is precisely what he seems to be aiming at. Bombay's civic elections are due in the first week of February, and for Raj and the MNS they will the first crucial test.

Till a year ago, one could feel the Shiv Sena's unchallenged supremacy as one stood under the shade of Sena Bhavan, the party headquarters located on Dadar's N C Kelkar Road. The rebel Raj has begun his assault by establishing his headquarters on the same street, just a few metres away. He has called his offices Rajgadh, 'Raj's fort'. Furthermore, directly facing Sena Bhavan is a 4.8-acre piece of prime real estate bought by Raj and his associates for a whopping INR 4.2 billion prior to the creation of MNS. Some Shiv Sainiks, the old party activists, feel that the awe that Sena Bhavan has inspired is now diluted by Raj's audacity. "Raj is surrounding us. His office is right here, this massive property in the front, and he lives next door," complains Shambhu Panchal, a Sena activist who lives in the tenements close to the nearby Plaza Cinema.

MNS's presence is imposing – symbolically as well as on the ground. Activists of the two parties clashed this past October, leading to a number of injuries. Explains Nitin Gujar, an MNS supporter who participated in the clash: "We wanted to show [the Shiv Sena] that though we are different from them, we are not cowards. Apna gaand mein bhi dum hai boss [Hey, we too have guts]." Plenty of guts – that is something the two Senas seem to have in common, requring police barricades to separate the two headquarters. The Shiv Sainiks have long taken pride in flexing their muscles for their "Supremo" Bal Thackeray. And with Raj's youngsters equally adventurous, the barricades appear to be nothing more than a gesture.

Pocket money
Dadar residents have been traditional Shiv Sena supporters, and it is from here that the party expanded its base to spread across Maharashtra. With the MNS on the scene, there is now palpable excitement in the area. The Kamble family has been living near Swaminarayan temple for over four decades. Swati Kamble feels Raj's party will get jobs for the youth, and hopes that it will do so for her son, who will graduate soon. But the son just shrugs. Manse (pronounced mans-ay), he says, using the Marathi acronym for the MNS, "is no different from Sena. Same violence, same old populist rhetoric." One gets the same response from a lot of people in the area.

And yet, there is also an optimism that reason cannot explain. It does not matter if they do not know what exactly Raj's vision is – if indeed he has one – or what the MNS has done in the nine months since its establishment. The important thing seems to be that the MNS is new, while the Sena is old. Bal Thackeray seems to be almost a spent force. And Uddhav? Too arrogant to approach the people; too arrogant for politics. Raj, on the other hand, is accessible. The MNS does not act like the moral police. Raj has encouraged Western-style ballroom dancing during inter-collegiate cultural festivals, organised cricket and body-building competitions. Some students – gathered at the Canepy restaurant near Ruparel College – agree that Raj will "make it big". Just exactly what that means remains unclear. A party functionary informs this writer that each young activist of the MNS gets INR 5000 a month. The claim is loftier than the actual amount, but it appears to be working for now. The hope of something new, and pocket money, is attracting young followers.

Bombay's political analysts differ in their views on the MNS's prospects. The lack of a coherent ideological position seems to be the biggest obstacle. "Raj Thackeray doesn't know what his party stands for," says one observer, "He shuns the Bal Thackeray brand of militant Hindutva, but uses the old legacy. His past record makes Muslims sceptical. And there is little in him to appeal to Dalits." In the months following the formation of the party, many disgruntled Shiv Sena leaders and activists did join the MNS. But a substantial reverse-switch has undermined Raj's momentum. Meanwhile, the old guard has tended to stick to the old party, even as many of the youth are attracted to Raj's outfit.

Raj Thackeray's politics is struggling to emerge from the shadow of what is not a principled departure but a personal feud, and to acquire a niche of its own. At the same time, the clash of personalities is also an asset for Raj over the Uddhav-led Shiv Sena. "If Uddhav and Raj were to make a speech from the same dais, people would see Bal Thackeray in his nephew and not in his son. Between the two, Raj wins handsomely," the political observer adds. Perhaps that will ensure that Raj makes a substantial dent in the Shiv Sena's vote bank, although it does not necessarily mean that it will be the MNS which will receive the resulting votes. Some say that he is definitely harming the Sena, but is doing greater harm to himself because the votes are likely to land in the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party's bags.

Whatever the differences, all agree that the 1 February 2007 civic elections will decide the future of Raj and the MNS. In Raj's favour is that, unlike Narayan Rane and Sanjay Nirupam, senior leaders who quit the Shiv Sena to join the Congress Party, he has floated his own party and appears determined to see it through. Also to his advantage is the absence of any credible competitor of his age in the entire platform of Maharashtra politics. If politics in the Subcontinent is an affair of biding one's time, Raj Thackeray has time on his side; the question is whether he has the patience.

'Bombay' is an uncomfortable noun to encompass this jazzy, global city. Here, parochial politics coexist with cosmopolitan economics. Dadar remains the playfield of this politics, its people now busily anticipating the twists that the conflict between cousins will take. In the end, one cannot really gauge whether the middle-class Maharashtrian of Dadar is shifting loyalties. But there is definitely flux, and it is visible.

Raj Thackeray has posed an impressive challenge to the Shiv Sena's dominance, and recent speeches at Shivaji Park have changed the state's political equations. Although there has never been a more influential orator at the park than Bal Thackeray, that is now in the past. Raj has crossed the street from his house, walked away from his uncle's shadow, and taken the centre stage. He has displaced the patriarch. Whether the people have replaced the Bal with Raj remains to be seen.