The gas rush

Bangladesh these days is getting to know what noveau celebrityhood is all about. Sitting on a potential USD 25 billion treasury chest of gas deposits, gone are the days when this deltaic country could only attract foreign aid workers. Now it´s the turn of energy entrepreneurs, (see page 56)

But, as is the case with newfound celebrity status, the Dhaka government is realising that the experience can be an unnerving one: a blown gas field; rumours of financial skullduggery; relentless pressure from cut-throat multinationals and their battery of lawyers; a sacked energy minister; bidding scandals; and the accusation that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed is lining up the richest gas-field of them all for her close friend.
All these find the government squirming in acute discomfort, without a real clue about what to do with this recently discovered gift of nature. Then there are the heated arguments over selling or not selling gas to India, and the fears of repeating a Nigeria where poor villagers can only helplessly stare at the export pipelines that pass them by. Finally, there is this doomsday scenario: what if the reserves dry up within 20 years, leaving Dhaka "paved with gold", and the rest of Bangladesh in "literal darkness", as some predict?

For all that, there are immense possibilities of a rich and fulfilled Bangladesh. Although the extent of its energy reserves have not yet been proven, the world´s biggest energy companies believe that Bangladesh is heir to at least twice as much gas as Britain´s share of the North Sea. "It´s going to have a huge impact," says Calgary oil man Robert Ohlson. "At the end of the day, Bangladesh could become self-sufficient."

Dhaka officials reckon that just extracting the gas could bring in USD 25 billion in terms of new investment, and the national treasury could be richer by another USD 2 billion a year in revenue from its share of the fields. And that, calculates the World Bank, could double the country´s current per capita income of USD 300 within a decade – provided, of course, that the money is used well.

However, by some accounts that is least likely to happen. Says Osman Chaudhary, a leading Bangladeshi economist: "Given our government´s record, I´m not very confident. The way the system is now, the money will go into a few pockets." Like Nigeria´s, then, will be Bangladesh´s fate.

Loading content, please wait...
Himal Southasian
www.himalmag.com