The realisation that the Multi-Fibre Arrangement (MFA), in place since 1974, will be phased out by the end of 2004 has produced something close to national panic in Bangladesh. Many people seem convinced that when the garment industry is no longer cushioned from the vagaries of the 'free market', its prospects for survival will be slim, at best.
Governments renegotiate the quantity of trade in this category as per the MFA, which sets developed country import quotas on textiles and garments manufactured in developing countries, countries renegotiate the quantity of trade in this category. In 1994, as a result of the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), the precursor of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), member countries agreed to phase out the MFA over 10 years, in accordance with official GATT-WTO goals of eliminating quota systems and protectionist markets. One of the member countries is Bangladesh, whose economy's reliance on export earnings from the apparel industry is overwhelming.
It is difficult to predict what will happen in Bangladesh once the apparel industry loses its fixed and protected export market. The greatest fear is that hundreds of thousands of workers, mostly female, will be retrenched as a consequence. Available evidence, however, does not lend weight to predictions of such drastic change, at least according to many industry pundits. They point out that quotas on several items have already been phased out without any substantial effect on overall earnings. Rather, large-scale retrenchment in the last two years resulted from other factors, such as the global economic slowdown following 11 September 2001. On the other side of the argument are those who note that the present quota system for most Bangladeshi export items is also scheduled for phasing out in 2004. They are convinced that a large number of factories will not be able to compete in the global market, making the prospect of mass unemployment imminent.
Whatever the prognosis, the plight of garment workers has suddenly become a matter of great concern, even to those who previously exhibited little interest in their well being. Factory owners, social activists who might otherwise have little to say on labouring women, and trade unionists alike are now highlighting the need to prepare for the end of 2004. While there is little apparent concern about what the numbers or statistical trends have to say, Dhaka is abuzz with talk about "1.5 million workers losing their jobs overnight".