Chained to Kathmandu

As politicians, planners and administrators continue their ostrich-like response to the Valley\´s ills and woes, one might well ask where all this "development" is leading. As we bury our heads in Kathmandu\´s filth, what does the future hold? Will the urban sprawl fill the entire Valley floor within thedecade and start creeping up the flanks of Chandragiri.Shivapuri and Phulchoki? Will "Greater Kathmandu", which today encompasses Patan andKathmandu towns, extend eastward across miles of rice paddies and annex Bhaktapur as well?

The Kathmandu environment will have to get much, much worse than it is today before its limits to growth are reached for reasons of politics and economics. The Valley remains "Nepal" to a significant portion of the country\´s population. It is the country\´s power center, cultural hub and "economic engine", as a recent report described it. Practically every national-level activity is conducted from the Valley. No government or business can afford to neglect it. Come what may, Kathmandu\´s grip over the country\´s economy and its influence over the decisions of national import are likely to remain paramount.

Every upwardly mobile Nepali from Sankhuasabha to Baitadi sees a dera (rental premise) in Kathmandu as the first step towards success. The migrant influx from hill and Tarai is a trend that will not dissipate anytime soon. The rural poor from the Valley and the surrounding hills will find more work as seasonal and permanent labourers in the expanding Valley economy. The affluent will either create exclusive enclaves within Kathmandu Valley or, as the road network improves, move their residences to the outlying  hills. They will do this to escape the deteriorating city cores and to be able to maintain fashionable "suburban" lifestyles. Some might even shift to the nearby inner-Tarai towns such as Bharatpur, 150 km away, but none will dispose of their Kathmandu properties because the Valley will remain vital.

While the rich might flee, the rest of the population will remain chained to Kathmandu, because this is where Government sits and where the jobs are. The quality of life, however, will deteriorate year by year. The inner city will cease its centuries-old role as the fountainhead of Nepali culture. It will provide dera for the poor of mixed ethnicities from all over the country.

There are, certainly, limits to growth prescribed by the lack of water, the insulated Valley atmosphere, and the poor urban facilities. But even these limits will not stop Kathmandu\´s urban expansion. The city will continuously expand, and the only thing that will dip is the quality of the inhabitants\´ lives.

Lung-related problems, hepatitis and typhoid are the diseases that will have high incidence. The poor, even when they know better, will have no choice but to continue to bathe in the sewage-laden Bagmati. The flood-plains will all be gone, swallowed by a jumble of runaway concrete and unplanned gullies. The ground-water is being mined so thoughtlessly that entire neighbourhoods may soon find themselves sinking, as is happening in Mexico City. The tourist numbers will dwindle as our Valley is converted into aHimalayan Athens-our Acropolisof Durbar Squares and mountain views obliterated behind and beneath smoke and dust.

Pressured by so many problems, we Kathmandu residents will wake up one day to realize that their vale has become unlivable. But we will remain chained to Kathmandu. And the saddest part is that there is no one, yet, with the courage, the vision and ability to organise a way out of the pit that we seem to have dug for ourselves.