Afghanistan unravelling

In early March, Kabul was abuzz with talk about the next presidential elections. When would they be held, and under what circumstances? Who would be able to vote? Would the Election Commission be prepared? Were any of the opposition candidates ready? Could the security forces ensure security? And how many times would the Constitution be violated in the course of whatever decision was ultimately taken?

Under Afghanistan's Constitution, the elections should have been held by 21 April, at least a month before the constitutionally mandated date for the end of the presidential term. But following discussions, it was last year 'agreed' – between the parliamentarians, the country's independent Election Commission and the presidency – to hold the elections in August 2009. This was a time period the commission said would be required if it were to attempt to implement the ballot throughout the country, large parts of which are snowbound till late spring. Now, this agreement appeared to have unravelled, with the opposition demanding that either the elections be held in accordance with the Constitution, in April itself, or that President Hamid Karzai step down for the period between the end of the presidency and the elections. With this move, the opposition – which includes the United National Front, a broad coalition of former and current strongmen, commanders from the anti-Soviet resistance, ex-Communist leaders and various social and ethnic groups – was hoping that it would be able to deprive President Karzai of the advantages of incumbency in the run-up.