China, Southasia and India
There was a time, not so long ago, when King Gyanendra was believed to have a 'China card'. By advertising his regime's willingness to cosy up to Beijing, it was argued, Nepal's other foreign partners – and especially Sinophobic India – would be scared into giving him an easy ride. Of course, it did not work out like that. Indian diplomats in fact like to boast of the "close dialogue" they maintained with China through Nepal's crisis earlier this year. The king played his China card but, as Rhoderick Chalmers of the International Crisis Group put it, "it turned out to be the two of clubs."
The episode is typical of the ambiguity and misunderstanding with which China is perceived in Southasia. Does emerging China represent a commercial opportunity or an economic threat? Are the smaller countries of the region to perceive Beijing as an ally against the overweening ambitions of the regional hegemon, or as New Delhi's 'strategic partner'? There are three main reasons for the uncertainty: that the relationship is in flux; that China is a closed society and its policymaking is opaque; and that it can be both opportunity and threat, friend and enemy at different times, or even simultaneously.