DANGER OF DESPOTISM

The biggest threat in recent times to peace and security in the South Asian region was averted by Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's unexpected air dash across the Atlantic to make Uncle Sam a promise: that he would ask the militants fighting the Indian army from Pakistan's side of line of control (LoC) to withdraw. With that promise ended the over two months of fierce fighting at the LoC, fighting that had taken a heavy toll on lives and finances, and which had threatened to spill over onto other fronts, with possibly the worst scenario of all, an all-out nuclear war.

For some, the whole scenario had been like watching a game of 'chicken' being played by two horned billy goats facing each other head-on atop a narrow mountain path, gnashing their teeth and pawing the earth with their hooves before beginning to gallop towards each other. A collision would mean certain disaster as they would both be knocked off the mountain path and be dashed to pieces in the ravine below. Which goat then would stop first? In this case, it was Pakistan. But it is chilling to think how close both came to hurtling down that ravine.

The sense of relief that was widely felt by what some perceived as a demeaning step for Sharif to have taken, was, however, tempered by indignation at why such a crisis had been allowed to develop in the first place. There has also been a great deal of resentment at Sharif's unilateral style of governance.

Since the 'Kargil Agreement' as it has been dubbed, the extreme Right has been calling for Sharif's head, vowing that the jihad will continue, regardless of Pakistan's 'deal' with the USA, which they refuse to accept. They maintain that since Sharif was not in charge of the operation in the first place, he had no right to make any commitments on behalf of the mujahideen who were out there in the chilly mountain heights of Kargil, staking their lives for a righteous cause, facing the entire wrath of the Indian military.

Processions and demonstrations are being organised to gather support against the government. Sharif, however, appears calm. He knows that the combined parliamentary strength of all these parties is less than the majority his Pakistan Muslim League enjoys. Furthermore, since he came to power in Feb '97, he has managed to successfully de-fang all major sources of threat to his government.

But the allegation that the country is being ran by a coterie of three or four men does hold water. Even the Cabinet is not taken into confidence about decisions and policy matters until after the event. Sharif is under fire for his refusal to take Parliament into confidence before dashing off to Washington DC, and not briefing it until several days after his return. The Fourteenth Amendment that Sharif pushed through the House last year prevents parliamentarians from opposing their party's stated policy —an effective gag to any dissent. But now, for the first time, Sharif's own party members are speaking out, albeit in muffled tones, against this gag, and asking for a greater share in the decision making process. This of course is one of the major gripes of the opposition too.

The state-run radio and television trots out the government line, even if this means zigging and then suddenly zagging, oblivious to the contradictions.    Meanwhile, the independent press which questions Sharif's policies and decisions, continues to be under tremendous pressure, its owners, editors and reporters   routinely bullied with tax cases, criminal charges, threats and intimidation.

If Sharif is to retain his power base, all this ought to change. Although the opposition against him is as yet too weak and scattered to pose any real threat, the momentum could grow if the perception that this so-called democratic government is actually a despotic one gains ground. Sharif would do well to remember the lessons of the past, and recall the events that years ago led to the downfall of Z.A. Bhutto, the first popularly elected prime minister of Pakistan and the only one so far to have completed a term in office.

Sharif's mandate has been compared with that of Z.A. Bhutto, who came to power following the 1973 general elections. The buzz in Islamabad is that Sharif, who has already passed his half-term mark in a five-year tenure, may call for early elections by the end of next year. If he does so, a parallel will be drawn with Bhutto, who called for elections in 1977, a year earlier than they were originally scheduled. But Bhutto could not resist rigging those elections, even though he would probably have won anyway. At the rate Sharif's popularity is dropping, he may be sorely tempted to go for some unethical practice during the elections. However, other than the charge of rigging, it was Bhutto's increasing despotism and his pandering to the religious right that paved the way for a 12-yearlong military dictatorship. The repurcussions of that regime are felt even today, nationally as well as regionally. No one, least of all Pakistan's suffering masses, would want to relive that experience.