Karzai again?
Polling for Afghanistan's presidential and provincial council elections is slated for 20 August, against a backdrop of increasing and unprecedented violence that is putting more Afghans at risk than at any time since 2001. According to data for the first four months of 2009, the number of security-related incidents rose by 43 percent over the previous year.
The deteriorating security has raised concerns about the electoral process being compromised. The insecurity, according to a joint report released in early July by the UN's Assistance Mission in Afghanistan and the Afghan Independent Human Rights Commission, could have an impact on the overall ability of candidates to actively campaign, and therefore on the ability of voters to make informed choices. However, as the International Crisis Group points out, proceeding with the polls is recognised as the "least bad option".
Five years since the country's first presidential and provincial-council elections, the electoral process remains deeply flawed and compromised, and yet it represents another small, grudging step towards democracy. Currently, political parties are banned from involvement in elections, members of political parties can only contest as individuals without affiliation. This situation is exacerbated by the confusing electoral law, which combines multi-seat constituency-based voting with a single non-transferable vote-counting process, ensuring a fragmented polity dominated by individuals.
The current electoral mathematics for the presidential elections is no different. President Hamid Karzai's deft manoeuvring appears to have sewn up support for him from some of the most powerful figures of the Afghan polity, including those earlier discredited by the government, such as the northern strongman Abdul Rasheed Dostum. Dostum, who was earlier chief of staff to President Karzai (a purely symbolic role), was removed from that position following a series of embarrassing events, including kidnapping and holding hostage a rival in the heart of Kabul city.
Equally shrewd was President Karzai's move to garner support from the Northern Alliance commander Marshall Fahim, making him the vice-presidential candidate. Fahim was earlier dropped from the role of Defence Minister with political promises that later evaporated. His presence on Karzai's team works as a spoiler within the ranks of the National Front coalition, which has put up its own candidate for president, the former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah. Along with the former finance-minister-turned-Karzai-critic, Ashraf Ghani, who had to surrender his US passport in order to contest for the presidency, the three are being considered the three primary contenders for the post.
As Himal goes to press, the balance is in Karzai's favour, after he appears to have overcome general public discontent. Further, amidst Afghanistan's nascent democratic politics, Karzai's position as the likely winner assures him of the support of large numbers of those who would rather back the frontrunner, even one that is thoroughly disliked. Recent days have, however, seen a slight but discernible shift, with more discussion about the possibility of a second round of voting – required if no candidate secures more than 51 percent of the votes the first time around. The heavyweights Karzai has made deals with could also end up being political liabilities, depending on the voter mood. In the event of a runoff, the fragmented opposition might coalesce around the remaining opposition candidate, which would finally confront Karzai with a real challenge.
Credibility factor
Almost neglected amidst the overwhelming focus on the presidential contest are the concurrently held provincial councils, which elect representative bodies in the 34 provinces. However with no devolution of power, these councils have remained symbolic, as even the provincial governor is a direct presidential appointee. For those with an interest in Afghan politics, however, these elections are likely to say far more about the public mood, as the composition of these councils will indicate the strength of different political groups and tribes, including the armed opposition. While the Taliban is clearly not participating, candidates considered to be sympathetic to the Taliban might emerge stronger, especially in areas with intense fighting.
Participation in the polls is expected to be uneven, especially with respect to women candidates and voters. In the initial process of candidate registration, the number of women candidates coming forward was so few that media outlets and NGOs were roped in to raise awareness. While the number of women candidates has now increased, there are still provinces – Kandahar and Uruzgan – where the number of reserved seats for women is higher than the number of candidates. Increasing violence against the participation of women in the public space has led a recent UN report to warn against "the effective imprisonment of women in their homes during the electoral period".
The most contentious, and least addressed, issue of the elections is the continuing presence of warlords and others accused of war crimes in the political arena. While the vetting process disqualified 54 candidates on the basis of their links to illegal armed groups, the mandate of the Electoral Complaints Commission remains extremely narrow, both by definition as well as limitation of resources. The transitional-justice action plan, adopted by the government in 2005, was expected to look into the issue of conviction for war crimes. However, the action plan was never implemented, and the Parliament subsequently adopted a bill according almost complete immunity to those who had fought in the conflict.
Meanwhile, underneath the hoopla about the elections, many Afghans also nurse a lurking suspicion that the real decision regarding their next president is being made in Washington DC, and not in their polling booths. Available evidence, however, suggests that US influence is more limited than is thought. It is more likely that Barack Obama's administration will wait on the results, and then try to win over the winner.
Rather than who actually wins, it is the credibility of the elections that will perhaps be the biggest challenge as well as determinent of public mood following the elections. In the past, the standards of registration and counting have been compromised, with insufficient safeguards. Even today there is no proof of identity required for voter registration, as there are no electoral lists. In the last elections, for Parliament, conservative areas showed polling figures that suggested that more women had voted than men.
While these figures were naively touted as evidence of women's participation, the more logical explanation was of ballot tampering. Ultimately, while the elections will be one more step forward in Afghanistan's democratic process, a less-than-credible exercise also carries greater risks than before. Awareness of the electoral process, democracy and the need for a level playing field has increased since the last polling exercise, and Afghan voters have higher standards than ever in the past. Will the polity deliver the kind of elections that the Afghan citizens by now know they deserve?