Nurturing the Nepali makeover
It was never going to be easy to bring a violent insurgency into open politics. The immediate challenge in Nepal, which is engaged in such an experiment, is finding a mutually acceptable mechanism to deal with the military component of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist). For now, the entire exercise is euphemistically termed hatiyaar byabasthapan, or 'management of arms'.
Mature politicians today find themselves maintaining a carefully calibrated stance vis-à-vis rebel leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal ('Prachanda') and his colleagues, which could ultimately enable the rebels to lay down their arms. In doing so, the political parties are recognising the full extent of Maoist vulnerabilities. This assumes added significance at a time when the bravado of the rebels, amidst a honeymoon period with the Kathmandu civil society and media, gives the impression that they are in control of much of the polity.
Indeed, the Maoist leaders, who unabashedly claim to represent the janata, the people, have publicly demanded equal participation with the political parties in any future dispensation. This seems unrealistic, for whether they are indeed speaking for the people of Nepal will be tested on the day they contest elections. Till then, it is only the political parties who have democratically proven their right to represent. Let it be understood that the Maoist place at the table has mainly been assured by their ability to take the country back to war, and added their stated willingness to join competitive politics. While the editors of Himal are confident about the Maoist intentions, everyone else need not be.
The Maoists continue to have the run of much of the countryside. However, logic dictates that the subdued nature of the populace vis-à-vis the rebels can largely be attributed to the gun that remains in the hand of their cadre. This leaves open the possibility of a reaction, sometimes violent, by sections of the citizenry against the Maoists once they are seen to be losing hold of their gun. It is this fear of reprisal that probably explains to some extent the unwillingness of the cadre to disarm, and also the inability of their leaders to utter the word 'decommissioning'. It is high time to start a public information campaign in Nepal to nip in the bud any trend towards vigilante justice against rebel activists.
As we go to the printers, there is a sense of dilly-dallying among the Seven Party Alliance, and perhaps a hope that the Maoist organisation will collapse under its own weight in the meantime. That would be a dangerous gamble, as among other things it would lead to a fracturing in Maoist ranks and jeopardise the entire peace process. It is critical that the unified Maoist command structure remains in place, so that a confident leadership can lead the entire rebellion towards peaceful politics. This is a process that is rarely tried, and seldom succeeds, but in the Nepali context it might stand a chance.
The way ahead
Like any other nation-building exercise, the political transition in Nepal will be cumbersome and confusing. Even if the Maoists are currently unwilling or unable to lay down their guns, in late July a senior government minister threw down the gauntlet, precluding any possibility of forming an interim government until rebel arms are managed.
Even if it is not possible to agree with Mr Dahal's demands that the Maoist army and the Nepal Army be merged in toto, innovative means are required in the name of 'managing' the Maoist fighters. This would include inducting some fighters into an appropriate unit within the Nepal Army, sending the youngest cadres back to school, arranging for skills-training for those remaining, and ensuring that the householder Maoists are protected as they give up their arms. Simultaneously, the politicians and society leaders must ensure that the Nepal Army – plagued with weak and opportunistic leadership – is significantly downsized in the days to come, and its structures altered so that it will never again have political ambitions. The politicians who have been placed in the driver's seat by the People's Movement of April 2006 must beware the dangers of the ultra-right, even as they try to bring the ultra-left into the political fold..