Peace through triangulation

One year after India and Pakistan defiantly tested their nuclear bombs, their triangular dialogue with the United States playing middleman appears to be leading to nuclear restraint. And now after the conclusion of eight rounds of talks by the United States with India and Pakistan, there is general optimism that this will resolve matters like the signing of the CTBT (comprehensive test ban treaty) by the two neighbours.

In October 1998, the American Congress voted to provide limited authority to the president to waive economic sanctions against both the countries, which he did soon after. Some analysts believe that this was done specifically to bale out Pakistan's tottering economy. Which is possibly true, but the fact remains that India itself has not scored too badly at the talks, namely, in the form of possible restoration of defence ties with the US.

Military circles in India believe that discussions with a high-level US steering group has cleared the way for military exchanges and possible joint naval exercises. The last time the Indian and US navies conducted joint exercises was in 1992.

At the same time, it has also been pointed out that the triangular talks, with US Undersecretary of State Strobe Talbott acting as go-between, have not produced anything concrete. While it may be too early to expect results, what has become clear is that unless major non-proliferation issues are discussed at greater length, India and Pakistan will find it difficult to come to any sort of agreement.

The US has spelt out the core non-proliferation issues. It wants India and Pakistan to sign the CTBT and ratify it, declare moratorium on the production of fissile material, restrain nuclear and missile capabilities, and tighten export control regimes bringing existing export control laws on par with international standards.

The general perception is that India is all set to sign the CTBT before September 1999, and that it may conduct another round of nuclear tests before signing. If India joins the CTBT without linking it to time-bound global nuclear disarmament, it will be roundly criticised both at home and abroad. The benchmarks identified by the US nowhere mentions global nuclear disarmament. That the US did not consider this an important aspect during the triangular discussion does not come as a surprise. But the fact that India, the pioneer of the nuclear disarmament campaign, should also have chosen to remain silent on the issue is indeed ironical.

If India signs the CTBT without any further nuclear tests, questions will be raised as to whether India's scientists have the capability to improve upon the earlier tests. The other aspect, of course, concerns what India would receive in return for ratifying the CTBT. The coming months should provide vital clues about India's course of action. And if India signs the CTBT, Pakistan will follow suit, as per Pakistan's official position for many years.

As for the declaration of moratorium on the production of fissile material, India has already rejected it, while Pakistan too is not likely to abide by it. The two sides have taken different positions on the fissile material cut-off treaty (FMCT) being negotiated at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva. Immediately after it conducted its nuclear tests, India said that it would participate in the negotiation process at the Conference on Disarmament with the understanding that the treaty would follow and discuss the provisions made in the UN General Assembly resolution 48/75 L. The resolution was co-sponsored by India and the US in 1993 and states that the FMCT has to be non-discriminatory, multilateral and international, effectively verifiable, and that it would ban the production of fissile material for nuclear weapons and other nuclear explosive devices.

Pakistan's stance, however, has been different: it insists that the FMCT should be retrospective in its scope and nature, taking into account the existing stockpiles. While about 36,000 nuclear warheads are held by the Big Five, with the US alone possessing tons of fissile materials, India's and Pakistan's stocks are in kilograms.

On export controls, India has agreed to review its existing laws and, if needed, make amendments to bring them to international standards, although the most recent Indo-US talks in New Delhi in March 1999 on export controls made no headway. Pakistan is not known to have any export control law and the immediate task before it is to draw up a stringent export control policy. These measures will help sustain the positive atmosphere that the triangular dialogue has created in the region. The world can well do with a peaceful and prosperous South Asia.