As India and China square up in Afghanistan, the Taliban is set to win

In a meeting that signalled an upgrade in India’s dealings with the Taliban, India’s foreign secretary, Vikram Misri, met with Afghanistan’s acting foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, in January this year. It was the first high-level bilateral engagement between the two countries since the Taliban stormed to power in Afghanistan in 2021. Until this January, India’s relations with the Taliban government had been managed by an official at the subordinate level of joint secretary. Crucially, the high-level meeting occurred against the backdrop of deteriorating ties between Pakistan and Afghanistan, and of China’s expanding diplomatic footprint in Afghanistan. 

As China increasingly engages the Taliban, it is creating pressures within New Delhi to formulate a viable Afghanistan policy for India that does not cede more space to China. Still lacking formal recognition from world governments and isolated from global institutions, the Taliban will find an India–China competition useful as it will help bring investment into Afghanistan and legitimacy to its government.