“LOVE THY NEIGHBOUR”
Within India, the image of the United Front government in New Delhi might have begun to tarnish after an all-too-brief honeymoon with the media. But, were a poll to be conducted in the surrounding countries, Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda´s coalition would emerge with flying colours.
No sooner had Mr Deve Gowda assumed office in June, than there was a message of congratulations from across the border in Pakistan. Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto offered to resume high-level bilateral talks that had broken off acrimoniously in early 1994. (Earlier, when the Bharatiya Janata Party held power in New Delhi for all of two weeks, there had been deafening silence from Islamabad.)
Within 24 hours, the Indian side responded positively to the overture and despite some minor hiccups, the talks are very much on the anvil. Significantly, the two countries have also decided to include Kashmir in the talks.
Pakistan has also accorded India the Most Favoured Nation status and allowed the import of key Indian goods that had hitherto been banned. This follows Islamabad´s initialling of the South Asian Preferential Trade Agreement. For its part, India had already allowed Pakistan access to its more than 900 million-strong market.
It is hoped that escalating trade will ultimately help thaw the frigid bilateral ties between the two big players of South Asia. The new government in New Delhi, bound neither to the supra-nationalist rhetoric of the predecessor Bharatiya Janata Party government, nor the legacies which are the Congress Party´s burden, is ideally situated to push through initiatives on the diplomatic front.
Inder Kumar Gujral, the new External Affairs Minister, has said that relations with Pakistan would follow the model of relations with China where talks progress despite contentious issues. "Ultimately when issues like trade and travel improve we can even sort out the pertinent issues in a more tranquil atmosphere. The suspicions are less and the intentions are not doubted," he told a fortnightly news magazine.
Just as, or because, the Deve Gowda government represents regional interests within India (see Commentary, June 1996), it will perhaps be better able appreciate the need for a regional outlook in South Asia. Mr Gujral has said that his foreign policy priority will be to enhance regional cooperation. Even as a statement of intent, this represents a sea change in New Delhi´s sensitivity towards a need for regionalism. As the biggest power by far in South Asia, India has always been the most reluctant regional partner, and it comes more naturally to the smaller neighbour to speak of cooperation.
With surprising forthrightness, Mr Gujral said,"I am willing to give more than I take. The central shift from my predecessors will be that I am not an advocate of quid pro quo. I believe that larger nations must have larger hearts also." Brave and unprecedented words these, but Mr Gujral should be cautioned that bold initiatives must be taken right at the beginning, with enough groundwork to allow the momentum to carry it along. Any delay will mean that the room for manoeuvre in key foreign policy issues will rapidly become narrow.
India is, no doubt, in the big league globally when it comes to size of economy, geographical mass and military prowess. This reality should dictate magnanimity and willingness to compromise and "give more than it receives", which is also Mr Gujral´s attitude. His emphasis on the importance of the region and the need to underplay India´s size and clout reflects an appreciation of a changed world situation where empty sabre rattling over decades has left South Asia where it began while the rest of the world has prospered. Economic compulsions dictate the need for building strong regional trade links so that South Asia emerges as a viable trading bloc.
The problem with centralisation of power in New Delhi is that the Foreign Office takes the macro and Delhi-centric view while deciding what is good for the country. Thus, a number of initiatives that could benefit different parts of the nation are either neglected or ignored. It is now time for New Delhi to appreciate the advantage that could be reaped by individual Indian states as a result of a South Asian regional warming. Thus, a liberal and open attitude towards cross-border trade and interaction could lead to promoting economic activity involving, say, Eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Nepal. For decades, the interests of the North Eastern states of India have been held hostage due to the inability of India and Bangladesh to agree on accessing Chittagong port. Dhaka has also been unable to obtain New Delhi´s permission to sell goods directly to the North East. Bangladesh now hopes this will be granted under SAPTA.
Mr Gujral has said that because the Indian economy is the largest in the region, he is willing to go in for asymmetrical relationships and grant concessions. This should be sweet music for Bangladeshi ears, for Dhaka has also been asking for a reduction of tariffs on Bangladeshi goods entering the Indian market to improve the trade balance that is currently overwhelmingly in India´s favour.
Given the volume of the Indian economy, the positive fallout from an opening of trade and commerce across South Asian boundaries may not at first seem sizeable. However, the amount of trade will rapidly grow to be big enough that even the largest players in India will not be able to ignore it. Already, Bangladesh provides a multi-million dollar market for Indian goods and services. One senior Indian journalist in a Dhaka seminar recently made light of the value of such trade, but his businessmen compatriots will doubtless disagree.
Thus, the positive fallout for all countries of South Asia from a policy of regional opening up is incredibly large. The activation of the principle of comparative advantage, already being used by Bhutan to sell premium fruit products to Bangladesh, will lead to a more efficient economy in South Asia as a whole.
When trade flows and money begins to be made or saved, tension level will start dropping. With a liberal-minded baggage-less government in place in New Delhi, and with Islamabad making overtures, it seems that the region as a whole is tantalisingly close to a breakthough of great magnitude.
"Love Thy Neighbour" seems to be the credo of the new Indian government. If it lasts out its term, or stays long enough to make a difference, it could mark a new chapter in South Asian relations.