The external context

India was earlier aligned with the USSR, while Pakistan had the backing of the USA – the superior world power – and China, the strongest regional player. Now, India as a bigger regional player, a bigger economic force, a bigger consumer market and a bigger supplier of quality manpower, is wooed by the US, European Union and Russia. The relationship between China and India is also improving, with trade likely to go up to about USD 20 billion in the near future. China also now takes a softer stance on India, vis-à-vis Pakistan, than it used to. India is currently the darling of the West. They're unwilling to push India to do anything against its will. India now perceives itself as a potential world power, and therefore wants a place on the high table – that's the Security Council. The goal of enhanced international support and pressure on India to find a solution to Kashmir has also reduced. The Indian statement on Balochistan recently indicates that it sees itself as a regional player. Currently, the main concern of the US and EU is to avoid a conflict between India and Pakistan, not necessarily to look for a solution. The role of Bill Clinton in the Kargil issue was a case in point. The US agrees with India's stance that Kashmir is a bilateral issue, and needs not be internationalised. So, all matters pertaining to the Kashmir issue and other central issues are really more covertly handled than overtly handled. For its part, the Islamic world has only given moral support to Pakistan. There is no pressure on India from the Islamic world on this issue. The one critical impediment for India could be energy. Many of these energy sources are available in Central Asia; but with strained ties with Pakistan, it will be difficult for New Delhi to access these areas. If you take a mature view, Balochistan is a site for many of these resources. There are problems in that region at present. But in the future, collaborative projects will benefit India as well, if it looks to improving ties with Pakistan. What has changed for Pakistan? Post-9/11, Pakistan has become an important necessity of the US and its fights against terror. The US needs Pakistan's continued support in its fight in Afghanistan. The US, UK and EU understand the importance of solving the Kashmir issue in order to remove the main cause of the radicalisation of the Islamists in Pakistan, because this affects their war in Afghanistan and generally the 'war against terror'. Are the governments of the two countries really in control? My perception is that in Pakistan, because it is in effect non-democratic, one man's decision makes a lot of difference. The government in Pakistan is in control in that sense, that if they were to enter into an agreement, they would certainly be able to deliver. But one is not sure if the same can be said about the Indian side. My last point is really on the future scenario. India is confident, it continues to grow, there is no major international pressure, it is engaging with Pakistan on its own terms, the wait-it-out policy is continuing. On the other hand, Pakistan continues to spend disproportionately high sums on defence with resultant pressures on the economy; the army in Pakistan enjoys the centre stage due to this; the chances of a sustainable growth of democratic institutions are dismal. The extremist jihadi elements are still gaining strength. They have a cause, and the public empathises with them. At present, external factors, barring perhaps a need for energy resources and trade and investment expansion, are not prodding India to seek a solution to the problems. The powers that be in the world are really excessively favoured on one side, on an institutional basis. In the case of Pakistan, it's an incidental basis, based on individuals, based on incidents. That is a very significant difference between the partnerships that exist. Is a scenario where one is a success and the other a failure likely to continue? Probably not. Silencing Pakistan is also an unlikely option because of the nuclearisation phenomenon. It's not something that can be wished away or bashed into the ground. So what is the possible scenario 15, 20 years from now? If there is this smug attitude in India that everything is going fine, Pakistan is not getting any assistance from anywhere else, there is a standoff because of nuclearisation, then something will give way. It is important that India takes a more mature and confident view of the situation and review the strategy.