The mid-summer ferment

Until not so long ago, summers in Southasia meant bright mornings, languid afternoons, balmy evenings and slothful nights, all endured listlessly by the power elite with endless glasses of nimbu paani, spiced mattha, sweet lassi, cold coffee or whatever else they drink in private. Everything on the political front would remain more or less at a standstill, as everyone waited for the monsoon downpour. But times have changed. Even though winters are now warmer and summers hotter, the wheels of political economy in the region have begun to turn irrespective of the weather cycle. And from Islamabad to Dhaka and Kathmandu to Colombo, decision-makers make moves from their climate-controlled lairs, with repercussions far and wide into the periphery.

The summer of 2009 has, thus far, been marked by momentous events all over Southasia. From Pakhtoonistan and Waziristan in the northwest to the Karen homeland in the east, and from Kashmir up north to Jaffna in the south, the entire region is passing through multiple, simultaneous convulsions. The ferment underway midway through this hot summer will undoubtedly have cataclysmic impact; but at the moment, it is difficult to be definitive about the changes that the current turmoil will bring in its wake. As dry westerly winds blow relentlessly and the monsoon is delayed, fear and apprehension hang thick that the rightward drift of politics could weaken an already sluggish pace of democratisation in the Subcontinent.