Unstartling Reportage

"Startling Discoveries" Magazine article by Raj Chengappa

This investigative special by a well-known reporter of the Indian environment presents the different geological phenomena and processes active in the Himalayan region in easy-to-understand prose. The complex theory of plate tectonics is explained without resort to jargon. Interesting findings such as the discovery of a hippopotamus skull in Ladakh, which proves that there was warm climate here in the recent geological past, will help awaken the public´s interest in this most interesting of mountain ranges.

But the article, unfortunately, reaches for scientific sensationalism when it makes claims of new and startling discoveries by the Indian scientists quoted and pictured herein. Chengappa seems not to have gone for second opinions. The knowledge of the geology of the Himalaya has accumulated steadily, bit by bit, through the efforts of hundreds of Western and regional scientists, over the last 150 years. It is foolhardy to suggest that a few years of work by the handful of scientists quoted here has led to an unprecedented spurt in the understanding of Himalayan geology.

For example, it is reported that the recent geological findings in the Himalaya has substantiated the theory of plate tectonics. But the theory has been firmly established since the 1970s, and one can hardly claim now that the "major findings by Indian geologists radically alter old theories of mountains´ origins." And it is unfair to present the recent rise of the Himalaya as a "startling discovery by Indian geologists" when A. Gansser in his important monograph on Himalayan geology had already concluded as much in 1964. It was Gansser in fact who proposed that for primitive man the Himalaya was probably a collection of low hills rather than today´s insurmountable barriers.

Perhaps the most troublesome aspect of the article is its loose talk on the impending earthquakes of enormous magnitude. It is known that several models for earthquake forecast are being developed in different countries, but to date none of their findings have been accepted even by their authors as being conclusive and foolproof. It is therefore premature for Chengappa to present unqualified the alarmist prediction that an earthquake of unimaginable magnitude is likely to strike soon in the Himalaya. Such statements should be made only with the utmost care because of their ability to influence decisions on major infrastructure development projects such as high dams.

Many accepted geological findings have been presented by Chengappa as breakthroughs, albeit he has made the effort to fill in the details. While not disregarding the possibility of major seismic events in the Himalaya, the alarm raised about a truly ´ground breaking´ earthquake should be regarded as speculation. Big earthquakes have been taking place in the region and there will be more in the future. But "soon", in geological terms, could be from now to the next 500 years, or more.

Chengappa´s article is good reading as a primer on Himalayan geology.

A.M. Dixit is a geologist and consultant.