In April, Nepal will once again be debated at the United Nations Human Rights Commission in Geneva. The Nepal Office of the High Commissioner on Human Rights (OHCHR) has made its report to the Commission public in mid-February and it gives indications of the increasing misery in the rural areas of the country. This is matched by an increasing political impatience in the urban areas, as well as among the political players nationally and internationally. However, any armed conflict that continues as long as the Nepali Maoist conflict will demonstrate the complexities of intractability. Intractable conflicts require patience and collaboration in the search for a solution.
Since the start of the conflict, there have been changes in power relationships within and between the major political forces in Nepal. For instance, at the start of the conflict, the Maoists were ignored and dismissed – something that could not be contemplated now. The actions taken by the king on 1 February 2005 appear to have pushed the political parties and the Maoists closer and catalysed greater coordination between important donors and diplomats. However, for the people of Nepal there have been new problems. The issues of structured social alienation, economic inequality and regional disparity, which have contributed to the success of the Maoist revolution in rural Nepal, still persist. But those who have become more powerful or wealthy through the use of the gun are not about to meekly return to serfdom or penury. In addition, there are new problems associated with displacement. Economically active people have left the country; seasonal workers have not returned from India; and there are sharp increases in female-headed households and bereaved dependents. People are moving to the urban areas, either to the district headquarters or, when they can, to Kathmandu. Those with more money and opportunity are leaving the country altogether. The loss of social capital from war-torn areas is always much harder to replace than the infrastructure.
None of these problems will be addressed by a simple 'power agreement' in Kathmandu, but such an agreement is necessary for this to take place. A complex negotiations process is needed but, sadly, even a simple political deal remains elusive. The path to an agreement requires political will on the part of all the parties – the will to come to the negotiating table and the will to remain there despite the inevitable obstacles. Political will was singularly missing from previous negotiations in Nepal. Although it was the Maoists that broke both the 2001 and 2003 ceasefires, the king never directly put his political weight behind those negotiating on his behalf. This weakened the process. The parties to the conflict have gone to the negotiating table on their own terms, whereas they have to be prepared to consider the positions of others. As of today, the government remains committed to King Gyanendra's three-year roadmap, which he announced at the time of the royal takeover on 1 February 2005, and it has not publicly shown any inclination for a negotiation of that plan. The other two sides to the conflict, the political parties and the Maoists, while they may have indicated non-negotiable bottom lines, have recently indicated some flexibility.
The November 2005 12-point understanding between the rebels and the political parties indicated a step in this direction, even though both remain fundamentally distrustful of each other. The people of Nepal understood that the four-month-long unilateral ceasefire called by the Maoists last autumn was a demonstration of a willingness to negotiate. Both the 12-point understanding and the ceasefire were popular.