Round-up of regional news

Burma
Fishy analysis

Reports of media censorship from Burma are hardly surprising, but the iron-fisted Censor Board has recently chosen an unlikely target: the fishing industry. The clampdown was put in place after a weekly publication, which has remained unnamed, printed the volume of fish exports for this fiscal year. More to the point, the paper also claimed that the figures fell far short of those from the previous year.

And indeed, something does seem fishy here. While the projected export amount was initially set at USD 850 million, it was readjusted to USD 500 million in early 2009. The real number, meanwhile, was actually just USD 483 million, just 56 percent of the original target. The destruction caused by Cyclone Nargis and the global financial crisis are said to be the causes of this downturn in numbers.

Evidently, the generals did not like this information to be known, even if the fall in numbers was due to factors largely outside of their hands. But let us be clear on something here. It is not that such statistics are regularly kept from scribes. In fact, journalists are allowed to attend the weekly meetings of the Myanmar Fishery Federation, which discusses these and related numbers. The media has even been allowed to report on the figures without first submitting them for approval. What is not allowed, however, and what was done by the offending journal, is to take the initiative to draw comparisons with projected and previous numbers. The bigger picture is always the dangerous one for authoritarian regimes.

Perhaps there is a bit more to the story, however. Burmese authorities recently clamped down on unlicensed fishing by local populations affected by Cyclone Nargis. Traditionally, the local poor would fish in these areas without rebuke, even though official licenses for the spots are generally auctioned to wealthy bidders. Post-Nargis, however, license-holders have not allowed local access, and officials have been colluding by imposing fines on trespassers. For those dependent on daily fish catches in the villages close to the Bay of Bengal, the prohibition has been devastating.

Pakistan
Non-believer tax

By press time, the almost three-month-old 'peace deal' in Swat had been reduced to irrelevant tatters, with clashes between Taliban militants and government security forces intensifying by the day. Anticipating further bloodshed, government officials lifted a curfew in mid-May, and outlined plans to set up six camps in the neighbouring NWFP districts of Swabi and Mardan to host an estimated 500,000 displaced persons.

The fleeing crowds will undoubtedly run into another frustrated lot – the Sikh community. Suffering from a revival of the 'Jizya' tax, an age-old practice of taxing non-Muslim residents, Sikhs in NWFP are protesting the Taliban's abuse of 'non-believers'. The tax has been imposed by rulers since the Prophet Muhammad's time, it is said, continuing up to the Mughal period in India till the time Emperor Akbar abolished the practice. Today, even in conservative countries such as Saudi Arabia, the Jizya is not implemented.

Hundreds of Sikh families have already been forced to flee the Orakzai tribal region due to the imposition of the new tax. (Incidentally, there have been no reports to date of Hindus being asked to pay the tax.) Meanwhile, the Pakistani government has chosen the route of non-involvement, claiming these to be 'internal' tribal matters. The tribes of Southasia cut far and wide, however. Sikhs in Lucknow have recently been demonstrating in solidarity with their brethren in Pakistan.

Region
Neighbourly port

It is an unfortunate reality that the nation states of Southasia remain inadequately connected, whether in telecommunications, transport or people-to-people contact. But there could be some significant developments on the horizon, with a much-needed improvement in trade and transit links in the works.

The hub of the new hope lies off the coast of Chittagong, where Bangladesh is contemplating a state-of-the-art deep-sea port. Planning is currently in the initial stages, with a feasibility study for the port having just recently been completed. Should the project get the green light, however, parts of the new facility are expected to be functional by 2016.

The billion-taka question now, of course, is whether Dhaka will allow India to use the port to send out exports from its landlocked Northeast. Since the 1965 India-Pakistan war (when Bangladesh was East Pakistan), the Chittagong port has been closed to India, despite regular requests for access from New Delhi.

It is now being reported that Dhaka is seriously reconsidering its stance on the matter, and may well allow India to use the new port once it is up and running. After all, why build a hi-fi new port if one cannot earn from it? And then, why just the Northeast, why not extend the facility to Nepal, Bhutan and China, via India? One can get carried away by the possibilities.

Region
Power surge

With an ongoing electricity crunch in a country that is again beginning to reel under the scorching pre-monsoon summer sun, Indian investors are currently scrutinising the region's hydropower possibilities with owl-like intensity. In India itself, more than 20 medium-sized projects are set to be finalised within the next eight months, and a staggering INR 600 billion is expected to be spent on hydropower in the next three to four years.

But the real money seems to lie across the border, in Bhutan and Nepal. Last year, the Indian Tata Power Trading Company and the Norway-based SN Power jointly announced new plans to develop power projects in these hydro-havens. Meanwhile, India's state-run National Hydroelectric Power Corporation is looking to Burma and Bhutan for mega-investments.

More concretely, the privately owned Hindustan Construction Corporation has recently won a contract worth INR 6.9 billion for tunnelling and mechanical work on the Punatsangchhu-I project, in western Bhutan. This comes on the heels of engineering conglomerate Larsen and Toubro securing an INR 1.2 billion contract to build a dam, diversion tunnel, and intake and de-silting facilities for the same project.

In Nepal, meanwhile, Indian companies have won contracts to build two of the most commercially viable hydropower projects in the country. GMR Energy has secured the bid for the 300 MW Upper Karnali project, estimated to cost about USD 469 million. Meanwhile, Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam (SJVN), a joint venture between New Delhi and the government of Himachal Pradesh, is constructing the 402 MW Arun III project. According to the contract, SJVN must provide 88 MW of power free of charge to Nepal, as well as submit 7.5 percent of its total profits to Kathmandu.

With so much hydro-activism going on, perhaps in a few years the term 'load-shedding' will fall into disuse. But don't hold your breath.

Region
Uneasy backyard

Mother Hen India has been quite concerned over the bristling cacophony emanating from the neighbourhood in recent months. Given that the porous borders (and one open border) allow for the bandying of everything from goods to capital to ideologies, caustic clucking on one side of the dividing line is often overheard – and, very often, replicated – on the other side. At least, so goes the worry in New Delhi.

No less than Prime Minister Manmohan Singh himself made clear official Indian concern during a campaign speech in May. "Today, there is lack of peace and stability in our neighbouring nations; be it Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka," he stated, continuing to note that these developments "can also affect the security situation in our country."

It is not difficult to guess what might have Prime Minister Singh riled up. At the top of the list is undoubtedly the recent attempt by Nepali (caretaker, at the time of writing) Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal to sack Chief of Army Staff Rukmangud Katawal, and the former's subsequent resignation; the renewed eruption of clashes in the Swat Valley in Pakistan; and the war between government forces and the LTTE in northern Sri Lanka, among others.

In an attempt to keep this instability from spilling over, Home Minister P Chidambaram recently stationed Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) border guards along the 1751 km border with Nepal, reportedly on high alert. Already extra vigilant due to the Lok Sabha elections, the force was asked by Chidambaram for daily updates on developments along the northern border.

Not that there is no political capital to be made by some from all this neighbourhood chaos. As Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader L K Advani sees it, all of these sinking ships may just be the boomerang effect of actions back home. He blames the incumbent Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA)'s incompetence in the foreign-policy arena for the current situation in both Nepal and Sri Lanka. According to him, the UPA's "outsourcing" of affairs with Nepal to the left in India had led to the election success of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), and allowed for the subsequent chaos.

Such outsourcing, Advani claimed, had led to Colombo and Kathmandu escaping from New Delhi's "foreign-policy ambit". Indians may or may not agree with this view, but Sri Lankans and Nepalis certainly have not given up on their belief that Big Brother is alive and kicking, especially in the Indian right.

India/Nepal
Slithery smuggling

Just as humans scramble outdoors with the first wave of summer heat, snakes begin to steal out of their burrows to shed their skins and lay their eggs. Naturally, snake charmers in the region have a particularly keen eye for this seasonal event. This year, Indian charmers have flocked to the Nepali border district of Jhapa – not to serenade their partners-in-crime, but rather to capture the slithery dancers for sale abroad.

Indeed, snake smuggling has become quite a lucrative business in recent years, due to the high demand both in the region and beyond for snake poison, used in the preparation of several traditional medicinal tonics. Though these charmers are openly going about capturing the snakes and transporting them across the border, local authorities seem to be doing little to halt such activity. Under the Wildlife Protection Act of 1972, it is illegal to capture, kill or trade snakes in India, and similar laws are in place in Nepal.

There are 22 species of poisonous snakes in Nepal, and the smuggling of these reptiles has been occurring for years. China, where there is a great demand for both Southasian snake-skin projects and venom for medicines, is one of the largest recipient countries. Though Beijing has declared the capture of wild snakes illegal, the law is not properly implemented; as a result, there is a serious crisis in the country, with 43 of the 209 species facing extinction. Nepal too may soon be in a similar situation, if more is not done to curb the ongoing active trade, seasonal or otherwise.

Bhutan/India
The pirates of Thollywood

The local film industry in Bhutan may be tiny, but the Motion Picture Association of Bhutan (MPAB) seems to be a body that believes in getting things done. Evidently concerned with the pirating of Bhutanese films in India (though no numbers are available), the MPAB recently decided to tackle the issue head-on. Officials sent MPAB members to the border town of Jaigaon, in West Bengal, to discuss the matter with the city's Merchants Chamber of Commerce and local police.

The upshot of the talks was a promise from the Bengali businessmen to prevent the copying and sale of unofficial copies of Bhutanese movies. And if anyone reneges on this promise, the Jaigaon police have agreed to conduct raids on the offending vendors.

Encouraging as these pledges undoubtedly are for the MPAB, it is difficult to believe that they will be implemented, at least on any mass scale. Even great Bollywood has been unable to tackle the problem, losing more than USD 1 billion annually in revenue due to pirating. And this figure, of course, does not include the losses incurred by other Indian film industries in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and elsewhere.

On the flip side, neither Hollywood nor Bollywood seems to be in any great need for new audiences, piratical or otherwise. But Thollywood? At least for an interim period, perhaps the MPAB could look at the pirates as goodwill ambassadors, and encourage them to spread far and wide the accomplishments of Bhutanese cinema?

The Maldives
Keeping it local

That the Maldives' economic situation is dire is a fact that has been repeatedly and plainly stated by President Mohamed Nasheed since his election in November 2008. President 'Anni' has also been equally unequivocal on his vision to fix the problem, consistently advocating public-private partnerships as a solution to both reversing the country's economic downturn and improving infrastructure for the people of the atolls.

The president recently unveiled the details of one such joint venture: private contractors building 10,000 housing units for locals would also be allowed to build 1000 luxury houses. Similar incentives are now being promised to international companies willing to build transportation and sewage systems throughout the country.

Support for the plan has been far from universal, however, with criticism from other political parties, including coalition partners. In particular, much grumbling has been heard over plans to privatise the international airport on Hulhule Island, next door to Male. Opposition to the plan is driven both by a nationalistic desire for economic independence, as well as a purported fear of 'terrorism' if entry points were to be run by foreigners.

Opposition politicians even tabled a bill in the Majlis, the Parliament, seeking to ban the leasing or selling of shares of airports and ports to non-Maldivian companies. It was announced that a decision would be made after parliamentary elections on 9 May, though there had been no movement till press time.

Nepal
Malling a region

Really, how many shopping hubs can Southasia sustain? First, it was Sri Lanka, which recently voiced its desire to become a shopper's paradise. (And Bangladesh is in the midst of a mall-reconstruction mania.) Not to be left behind, Nepal has now announced plans to become a shoppers' destination. And with Sri Lanka's hopes to become a magnet for the spendthrift on indefinite hold due to continued political instability, Nepal may have a lead in the race to draw the consuming clientele – its own mounting instability notwithstanding.

A newly formed Complex Developers Leasers Association (CDLA), which works for the promotion of 'mall culture' and multiplex construction in Nepal, has sky-scraping ambitions to develop the country's major urban areas, particularly Kathmandu and Pokhara. The idea, of course, is to turn these and other cities into a regional destination for that universal middle-class urge to shop till you drop.

With 40 shopping malls, worth some NPR 8 billion (USD 101.5 million), already set up in the Kathmandu Valley, CDLA President Sukunta Lal Hirachan believes that the low rental charges for malls will work to Nepal's advantage. However, this may simply be a result of current low demand – once investors begin to flock into the Valley, the value of real estate will likely shoot up.

Hirachan assesses Nepal's current shopping culture as 'moderate'. Yet considering the way departmental stores have proliferated in the country, investors may well be justified in being optimistic about domestic consumption. But uncertainties abound, of course, about becoming a 'destination'. After all, it is one thing to rope in domestic shoppers, and another thing entirely to have people fly in – unless you have the prices to show for it, and ancillary attractions.

Region
New TAPI

India is making use of Turkmenistan's recent attempts at removing itself from the grips of the Russian gas-export monopoly to try and tap into the country's vast resources. The Russian-Turkmen friendship turned sour after an explosion at one of the Turkmen pipelines in late April. Believing this to have been a Russian conspiracy, the Turkmens decided to move away from their monogamous relationship, to make themselves available to other takers.

Joining other eager applicants, such as the US and Europe, India has now swooped in on the situation. RS Pandey, India's (it would seem) aptly named petroleum secretary, recently visited the Turkmen capital of Ashgabat to make tempting pitches. He proposed setting up a one-to-two million-tonne fertiliser plant, worth some INR 80 billion; constructing a massive petrochemical plant; and establishing an International Gas Highway to transport liquid petroleum products to shortfall countries to the south, such as India.

In previous plans for a crossborder pipeline (the failed Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline, or TAPI), discussions fell far short of implementation. This failure could well be put down to the projected expense of the project – USD 7 billion – and to other geopolitical difficulties inherent in any potential quadpartite agreement between Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. But a heads-up for all parties dreaming of unshackling themselves from either the tyranny of monopolies or the burden of energy-dependence: applications for inclusion are still being considered.

Afghanistan/Pakistan
Open up!

Afghanistan and Pakistan have been discussing a trade-and-transit agreement since as far back as 1965. Now, the two countries have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to begin negotiations on such a trade agreement by the end of this year. The commitment was made in a meeting between Presidents Asif Ali Zardari and Hamid Karzai during their mid-May trip to Washington, DC.

While the pair stand to gain from the partnership, whether they will allow any third party in on the pie is unclear. Indeed, something of a controversy is already brewing in Islamabad over the perceived benefits that India is likely to receive from such an agreement. More specifically, these issues include whether the Wagah-Attari land border would be allowed for trade, and whether India could use the Khyber Pass route to gain direct access to Afghanistan. This is something that both New Delhi and Kabul have been calling on Pakistan to do.

The business community in NWFP has already expressed concerns over opening up Wagah-Attari, however, as this could allow for the smuggling of duty-free Indian goods back into Pakistan, disadvantaging local businesses. The disparity is a result of unequal import duties imposed by Afghanistan – at the moment, an 18 percent duty is slapped on Pakistani products, but zero on Indian goods.

Islamabad, meanwhile, has said it is premature to raise questions as to whether India would be allowed access to Afghan trade through its territory. The MoU, it states, is a purely bilateral matter. But when it comes to such issues between proximate neighbours, there is no such thing as solely bilateral.

Nepal
Good May Day

Here is an encouraging story of government bureaucracies working hand-in-hand to further the welfare of their citizens. Kathmandu is now set to appoint four labour attachés to Malaysia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the four countries that receive the highest number of labour migrants from Nepal, collectively making up about 90 percent of Nepali economic migration. This is no small number. According to unofficial records, 300,000 Nepalis are working in each Malaysia and Qatar, with 150,000 in the United Arab Emirates and a full half-million in Saudi Arabia.

The decision was approved by various government departments within the laudably short timeframe of just five months. Working under the purview of the respective ambassadors abroad, the attaché position would entail surveying and reporting back on the host country's employment numbers, immigration policy and labour-rights situations, as well as worker well-being. Additional responsibilities will include resolving labour disputes, assisting in repatriation efforts and sending home the bodies of deceased workers, which is an area of great humanitarian concern.

In addition to institutionalised representatives for migrant labourers, the Kathmandu government has also called on Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE to set up embassies in Kathmandu, which are currently lacking. This would take away the need for third-country involvement, making several processes significantly more efficient. At the moment, Nepali visas for Saudi Arabia are issued through the embassy in Dhaka and consulate in Bombay, while documents for Qatar and the UAE are distributed only through Internet and fax.

Welcome as these steps are, the Nepali government also needs to play a greater role in monitoring the agents and agencies that provide visas to labour migrants. Nearly all jobseekers utilise middlemen to arrange jobs and visas, and there is abundant proof of unscrupulous behaviour. Perhaps by next May Day, the government will have assigned representatives to engage in such monitoring.

Bhutan
It's now…or later

Famously isolationist, since 1999 Thimphu has nevertheless been pondering whether to join the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Ten years, multiple rounds of negotiations, numerous reports and a first-ever democratic election later, it is still considering the same question. Recently, however, one could detect some signs that Bhutan might well move towards the WTO in the near future.

In early May, a report from the country's Ministry of Economic Affairs emphasised the benefits of joining the WTO. The main argument for membership was that, while there might not be significant benefits to WTO membership, an assumed increase in bilateral trade could be reason enough to join.

In particular, according to the Ministry report, now is the time to join due to the WTO's recent favourable attitude toward the so-called Least Developed Countries. This new advantageous stance is said to have come about following the now-stalled Doha round of international talks on trade barriers, which began in 2001. Though the talks themselves have not come to any conclusion, the Ministry believes that the WTO has become more sympathetic to developing states in recent years.

The matter is now being studied by Prime Minister Jigme Thinley, who is consulting the Centre for Bhutanese Studies (an autonomous research body) and the official Gross National Happiness Commission before making a decision. Should their responses, and that of the cabinet, be positive, Bhutan could be a part of the WTO as early as the end of this year.

Of course, throughout the world there is a healthy chatter kept up by critics of the WTO, particularly in light of the current economic meltdown. Yet among all the arguments for Druk Yul to become (or not) the 154th member of the WTO, the Ministry is making the point that since non-membership, and isolation, are no longer feasible – so, let's just go ahead and get it over with.