In the recently concluded third Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) Summit, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina stated that roughly 30 million Bangladeshis would become 'climate migrants' due to global warming, a phenomenon which, according to the Bangladesh Change Strategy and Action Plan 2009, has already begun. In the past too, several climate change reports have stated that Bangladesh will be severely hit by climate change. The Stern Review 2007, for instance, noted that sea-level rise due to climate change could submerge one-fifth of its existing territory and force many to leave their homes in Bangladesh.
Climate-induced migrants are largely affected by slow-onset disasters, occurring due to rising sea levels and increased salination of freshwater which in the long run can make a place uninhabitable. This results in forced displacement which current international law cannot deal with adequately, as laws such as the Convention and Protocol Relating to the Status of Refugees (Refugee Convention), International Human Rights Laws and Guiding Principles on International Displacement, do not deal expressly with climate-induced cross border movements. Climate migrants for instance, are unlikely to be considered refugees under the Refugee Convention. And it is unlikely that they will be able to invoke the non-refoulement principle under existing human rights law, which would protect them from being forcibly repatriated to countries where their lives continue to be at risk.
Environmental factors add to the existing hardships surrounding conventional migration patterns such as forced displacements due to economic, social and cultural reasons. The lack of government support, insufficient response mechanisms, limited access to basic amenities, public health issues and poverty in host countries compound the situation. With adequate adaptation measures undertaken by both countries, climate migrants may eventually have the choice to be rehabilitated in their own country. However, this would require the identification of climate migrants from those the host government usually considers to be 'illegal' migrants, which in itself is a politically fraught and complex task.
Bangladesh's predicament
Bangladesh has witnessed 22 percent of its households affected by tidal-surge floods, and 16 percent affected by riverbank erosion. In the future, because of large scale movement of people towards urban areas, the newly populated location may not be equipped to effectively adapt to climate migrants. It is in these circumstances the state may prompt people to shift their base to neighbouring countries. India therefore becomes a natural choice for Bangladeshi climate migrants due to its close cultural ties. If Bangladesh is able to provide effective recovery to those displaced, there is the possibility of making provisions to safely and non-coercively reinstate the affected people back in their country. However, India would still have to share the economic costs while the migrants are within its borders. Although India may express a political unwillingness to accommodate migrants within its territory, in the long term, it will have to do so on humanitarian grounds and because of international laws (which offer some protection to migrants) already in place.