Tit bits from Southasian region

TIBET

Into the shanties

Chinese authorities have reportedly been stepping up a process of forcing at least 100,000 Tibetan nomads to give up their traditional lifestyles and settle down in newly built towns. Although such 'rehabilitation' of nomads has been ongoing for the past several years on various scales, the current push is now being explained by Beijing as being undertaken for environmental reasons.

Authorities say that overgrazing by nomads in northwestern Amdo (Qinghai) Province, coupled with a growing human population, is threatening rivers that originate in the area, particularly the Yangtze and Hwang Ho. By the end of this year, 60,000 Tibetans will reportedly have been moved into new, specially constructed towns in Amdo. Another 40,000 are expected to make the move by 2010.

Official news releases have highlighted compensation packages worth around RMB 8000 (USD 1060), while admitting that not all of the nomads are happy with being transplanted. "To move the herdsmen from pasture lands they have inhabited for generations is not easy," noted one official. Critics have pointed out that the government reports fail to note the massive industrial centres that Beijing is currently attempting to construct along the Yellow River, against which environmentalists have long issued warnings.

Gentrification has also been going on apace in the capital. By the middle of November, construction had begun on a large new district in the city, ostensibly to help Lhasa deal with the current and projected influx of both migrants and tourists. The Liuwu New District, on undeveloped land 10 km south of the Lhasa River, is set to be completed by 2009, and is designed for a capacity of upwards of 110,000 people.

Lhasa's current population, meanwhile, is only around 500,000, including more than 125,000 Chinese migrants. Nearly all live on around 59 square kilometres in the old town, while the Liuwu development will add an additional 42 sq km. Among the 17 industries that have already agreed to move into Liuwu is an industrial centre that officials say could provide 140,000 new jobs.

MALDIVES/PAKISTAN

On the Iam

Officials with the Maldives police have admitted to being stymied in their attempts to apprehend a large number of people alleged to have been part of the 29 September bomb blast at a park in Male that injured a dozen tourists. Of the 14 individuals named in the immediate aftermath of the blasts, ten, believed to be the masterminds, are currently on the run and thought to be in Pakistan, where they had allegedly learned bomb-making.

Meanwhile, some of those captured have reportedly told police that they carried out the bombing in order to "target, attack and injure non-Muslims, to fulfil jihad". Some of the attackers are also said to have received support from collaborators in Sri Lanka. All of the suspects have been linked to a 'breakaway' mosque on Himandhoo atoll, which police forcibly closed in late October. The accused are all part of an ultra-right group called Jamaat Ahl-e-Hadis, which argues that the centrist Sunni Islam promoted by President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom is heretical, and the regime itself illegitimate. 

PAKISTAN/AFGHANISTAN

Pashto schools in danger

A dozen Afghan schools in Karachi are reported to be on the brink of collapse, largely due to a lack of financial and technical support. If something is not done soon, those concerned have recently been telling reporters, Karachi's Persian- and Pashto-language education centres could be forced to close within the next couple of years.

The Afghan centres – which include two colleges, four secondary and four primary schools – were built during the early 1990s, with help from both the Kabul and Islamabad governments. At the time, Persian- and Pashto-language education was seen as "a symbol of socio-cultural compassion between the two countries", according to former head of the Afghan Education Ministry in Karachi, Rahim Rahimi Mohmand. Says Mohmand, "A unique culture was developed in the city around these educational institutions. Afghan children learnt not only basic education via Afghanistan's education system, but also promoted the tradition and culture of a foreign land."

Tuition fees of just PKR 50-150 have long been the only form of income for the schools. With the Islamabad government enthusiastically supporting the repatriation of Afghan refugees, the number of students has dwindled rapidly. There is no issue with repatriation, but it is sad that Persian and Pashto will be taught less in Karachi.

INDIA/PAKISTAN

Tomatoes roll at Wagah
Early October saw a fantastic sight at the Wagah-Attari border: cargo trucks legally crossing over the no-man's land. The honour went to an Indian truck loaded down with tomatoes.

The momentous occasion followed on a high-level agreement taken a month earlier between the Indian and Pakistani trade secretaries. The aim was to speed up the achingly slow process that has long plagued the movement of cargo across the border, the two neighbours' only land trade point. In the past, goods had to be unloaded, moved across the no-man's land by hand, then re-loaded on the other side. Now, trucks from both countries will be able to move across the so-called zero line, into specially built re-loading points across the border – though there they will still have to stop and unload.

Work is now underway on both sides to construct a special four-lane crossborder access road. For the first time, customs officials on both sides have also now been linked, via satellite telephone. Eventually, full-sized container shipping is expected to be allowed across the border – if nothing else, that's a lot of tomatoes.

SRI LANKA

Karuna Asylum!

Reports arose during October and November that Karuna, the Colombo-backed LTTE breakaway commander, had requested asylum while in the UK, evidently for murky reasons. Soon it came out that the colonel had actually been arrested in the country on charges of holding a false passport. From there things got still more confusing.

With a split having arisen earlier this year within Karuna's TMVP group, some had been whispering that Karuna was no longer feeling safe on the island. This was purportedly due to worries of his own security, particularly with the rise of another breakaway leader, Pillaiyaan.

Indeed, Colombo appears to have been complicit in smuggling Karuna out of Sri Lanka, and on a fake diplomatic passport to boot. In response to the news of his capture, some human-rights groups have begun calling for the British government to promise that it would prosecute Karuna. In the past, the UN has repeatedly accused Karuna of wide-scale extortion and the use of child soldiers – and it has charged the Colombo government with complicity in those acts.

THE MALDIVES

Oil vulnerability

Even as global oil prices continue to set new records, a recent United Nations report pegs the Maldives as the most vulnerable country in the Asia-Pacific region when it comes to rising oil prices. The Maldives, especially its tourism industry, depends almost exclusively on imported oil for its energy, and the prices have increased fourfold since 2003.

The UN report posits four future possible directions for oil prices to head, including a doomsday scenario where the price per barrel would top USD 100 and "rise exponentially" from then on. Despite these alarming projections, there are no signs that the Male government is looking to alternative energy sources, including the abundant sunlight the atolls receive, nor wind energy. Meanwhile, the back-up fuel source continues to be wood.

But if the atolls are to qualify for UN assistance to counter oil-price vulnerability, they will need to show at least token efforts to diversify production and restrain demand. The UN report proposes establishing an Asia-Pacific Compensatory Oil Finance Facility (AP-COIL), to protect developing countries from oil price fluctuations. In return for bailing governments out of foreign-exchange crises, the UN will require them to "move towards a less oil-intensive future by investing in alternative forms of energy". But one view in Male might be, why worry if you can simply pass the cost of expensive fuel onto the tourists?

REGION

Zero tillage!

A group of scientists has announced that a 'new' approach to farming has significantly reduced demand for irrigation on nearly a million hectares of agricultural lands in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan.

The technique, known as 'zero tillage' or 'conservation tillage', involves planting seeds – particularly rice and wheat, during the summer and winter, respectively – into earth that has not been tilled since the previous year's harvest. The wheat seeds are subsequently able to germinate in water left over from the rice harvest, which the scientists, backed by the World Bank, say is saving up to a million litres of water per hectare.

Using less labour and diesel, the zero-tillage technique can also save around ten percent of production costs. The work is highlighted in a new World Bank report, which marked the first time in a quarter-century that the Bank has focused its annual report on agriculture. Better late than never.

BHUTAN/NEPAL

17 years later…

For the first time in 17 years, significant on-the-ground changes have begun taking place in the Bhutani refugee camps in southeastern Nepal. Though the movement was not in the direction of their homeland, as most have long held out hope, the first week of November did mark the official beginning of a process of resettlement for the nearly 107,000 Bhutani refugees in the UN-overseen camps.

The process was kick-started late last summer with an offer from the US to resettle at least 60,000 refugees, with more offers subsequently coming from other Western countries. But getting that procedure off the ground has not been straightforward. Significant tension, even violence, has arisen within the camps over the past year, much of which has erupted between groups supporting and groups opposing resettlement.

Those opposed to resettlement include leaders who would lose their entire flock, as well as Maoist groups among the refugees who claim that resettlement is capitulation. Those favouring resettlement say it is a humanitarian exercise that would leave the 'right of return' to Bhutan intact, to be utilised when a return becomes feasible.

On a visit to the region, Ellen Sauerbrey, a US official in charge of refugee policy, warned that the Bhutani refugees in Nepal have been experiencing "severe intimidation" following the announcement of resettlement plans. She blamed pro-repatriation refugee leaders for that intimidation, while also pointedly noting that nearly everyone in the camps would qualify for resettlement to the US – unless they had a history of violence in the camps.

The US facility that will be overseeing the resettlement process to that country was also supposed to be dealing with a smaller but still significant group of 5000 Tibetan refugees in Nepal. During Sauerbrey's Nepal visit, however, an announcement was made that the Kathmandu government had suddenly decided, in what is seen as deference to Beijing, to withhold its green-light for that process. Sauerbrey said that Washington, DC would respect the decision, but would continue to press for official approval.

PAKISTAN/INDIA

Troop diversion

In early November, Indian officials suddenly announced that Islamabad had withdrawn tens of thousands of military troops from the Indo-Pakistani border over previous weeks. Evidently, the flare-up among pro-Taliban militants in NWFP was considered more pressing than any possible conflagration on Pakistan's eastern border.

One estimate suggested that the total pull-down was somewhere around 38,000 troops. Defence officials in New Delhi confirmed that Pakistani troop numbers were at an "all-time low".

Following the Indian report, Pakistani intelligence officials denied that any withdrawal had taken place. Indeed, they said instead that Islamabad did not even position troops along its eastern border in peacetime, but merely kept up troop positions along the Line of Control and on the Siachen glacier. The irony of it all, if the Indian report is to be believed, is that it takes trouble in the northwest of Pakistan to reduce military presence along the India frontier.

REGION

The military balloon

A report released in late September warned that the current region-wide increase in military spending could exacerbate conflicts both within and between Southasian countries. The International Institute for Strategic Studies, in a report titled "The Military Balance", analysed the militaries of India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan in the context of those countries' economies and demographics.

India's and Pakistan's forces were dubbed both the largest and "most cumbersome", though India's still far exceeded its western neighbour's. There are around 1.3 million troops in India, to the just 619,000 in Pakistan. India is also reported to spend USD 21.7 billion on its military every year, compared to Pakistan's USD 4.1 billion. Nepal was at or near the bottom of both lists, with 69,000 troops and USD 139 million spent per year. (Though a little bird tells us that the IISS information is a bit dated, and that the Nepal Army now numbers nearly a hundred thousand.)

BANGLADESH/INDIA

Garment breakthrough

Following months of negotiation, New Delhi and Dhaka recently arrived at an agreement that would allow India to import up to eight million garment items, duty free, every year from Bangladesh. Officials from both sides declared that the agreement was the first major step forward in whittling down the USD 2 billion bilateral trade gap that has long existed between the two countries in India's favour – and which has been a primary bugaboo in political relations.

While Bangladeshi trade officials say that the eight-million figure was not a particularly substantial amount for Bangladesh, the move was lauded as indicative of New Delhi's willingness to negotiate on the trade gap. Observers have also expressed optimism that the momentum created by the agreement will lead to additional opportunities in the future, particularly as India's economy continues to grow.

Previously, there were 185 garment items included on India's list of 'sensitive' tradable items. Under the new agreement, all of these will be open game for Bangladeshi exporters, as well as nearly 50 more. We wait to hear from Indian apparel manufacturers, for you can never lower or erase import duties without someone being hurt.

REGION

North stars

The Indian government has announced that, over the next six years, it plans to launch into space a series of seven satellites, in order to create a comprehensive navigation system for the entire Southasian region. The INR 16 billion system will be called the Indian Regional Navigational Satellite System (IRNSS), and will primarily be for use by planes and ships in the region. At the same time, however, the satellite array is being patterned after the US-funded Global Positioning System (GPS), and IRNSS information will likewise be freely available for public use. The first of the seven satellites is scheduled to be launched in 2009. We will believe it when we see it, but it is certainly tantalising that all of Southasia will get to take advantage of the Indian satellites.

REGION

Weapon wallahs

A new report has found that, out of the world's top three weapons purchasers, two, once again, are Southasian. Both India and Pakistan again made the ignominious list, despite the warming of relations between the two countries in recent years. The third on the list is also unchanged: Saudi Arabia.

The report, by the non-partisan US-based Congressional Research Group, a division of the Library of Congress, found that, all in all, 60 percent of weapons sales last year went to developing countries, about USD 28.8 billion worth. This was a decline of about nine percent below 2005 levels, though the rankings of the top three purchasers remained the same.

Pakistan led the list off, having bought around USD 5.1 billion worth of weapons last year, followed by Saudi Arabia (USD 3.5 billion) and India (USD 3.2 billion). The study also reported that, yet again, the US was the world's largest arms supplier, having sold around 36 percent of those weapons destined for developing countries, with a total worth of around USD 10.3 billion.

INDIA/PAKISTAN

Wullar restart?

The Indian government has announced its intention to restart plans for the long-stalled Wullar project, in Kashmir. New Delhi claims that the updated plans will take on a completely different form, but heavy opposition from Pakistan is still expected.

The Wullar, alternatively known as Tulbul, project was originally conceived to let out a regulated flow of water from Wullar Lake during the lean winter months. But the plans have been shelved since 1987 due to Pakistani complaints that the plans contravene the long-standing Indus Water Treaty.

New Delhi now promises that the updated scheme will conform with the treaty, and that the new vision will not include a barrage, only what is being referred to as a "navigation project". Indian Water Resource Minister Saifuddin Soz reported that Japan had agreed to provide funding to India in order to "restore navigation on the River Jhelum", which runs out of Wullar Lake.

Soz said that two major surveys have recently concluded that around 170 km of the Jhelum should be navigable, from Baramulla to Khannabal. (Pic shows the Jhelum at Muzaffarabad.) Soz noted that a century ago, the Jhelum was one of the only forms of transportation in Kashmir, and "we are only reviving it."

INDIA/PAKISTAN

Cricket fans not welcome

Ahead of a highly anticipated one-day international cricket match between India and Pakistan in early November in Indian Punjab, the New Delhi government made a sudden decision to wade into the world of crossborder sport. With just days to go, security officials dramatically limited the number of Pakistani fans that would be allowed to attend the game.

Out of an expected 30,000 attendees for the game, the Punjab Cricket Association had originally requested at least 2000 tickets for Pakistanis keen on making the trip over. Indian officials then decided, initially, to slash the slots for Pakistani fans down to just 250, and then again down to a mere 100.

The unsporting reaction did come in the wake of the bomb blasts in Ludhiana and Ajmer, which the Centre alleged were aided by Pakistani intelligence. More to the point, during an Indo-Pakistani cricket match held in India during 2006, 11 Pakistanis reportedly did not return to their homeland. Three of those were later alleged to be ISI agents. Nonetheless, the security concerns seemed out of line for the type of event that has in the past received rave reviews for its people-to-people bonhomie. For those 100 fans that were to be allowed to attend the match, New Delhi announced that each would be picked up at the Attari border, and escorted by police personnel during the course of their stay in India. But who needs fans when you've got heart? Pakistan won the match by four wickets.

THE MALDIVES

Good business

The World Bank recently rated the Maldives the best country in Southasia in which to do business. This was the second consecutive year that the atolls were so rated by the Bank, notwithstanding the upheaval that the country has seen over the past twelve months. Despite rising to the top of the regional heap, however, the Maldives were still rated only 60th worldwide, down seven places from last year.

The country's continued 'success', according to the World Bank's ratings, is put down to a lax tax system (there is no corporate tax, while labourers pay no income tax) and diffident labour regulation. The latter means that there is no such thing as overtime pay in the Maldives, and workers can be fired at any time without notice. Business may be good for Southasia, but business may not be as good for Southasians.